Veteran Strategist Predicts 10‑Year Treasury Yield Could Near 6% – Implications for Bitcoin

Rick Bensignor, founder of Bensignor Investment Strategies, told CNBC’s Closing Bell Overtime that the U.S. 10‑year Treasury yield could rise toward 6.07%, up from roughly 4.78% at the time of the interview. He based the projection on a multi‑year uptrend line and a 200‑week moving average that highlighted a recent low near 4%.

Historical Yield Context

The 10‑year Treasury yield has a wide historical range, peaking at 15.8% in the early 1980s and bottoming near 0.40% at its record low. The midpoint of that range is about 8.11%, which Bensignor does not expect to be reached. He noted that even a yield of 5.6% would represent a “minimum upside target” for the market.

Potential Impact on Bitcoin

Higher Treasury yields typically attract capital to safer, income‑generating assets and can pull money away from speculative investments. This dynamic could pressure Bitcoin’s price, especially as the “debasement trade” narrative links BTC to concerns about U.S. debt. Bitcoin is currently trading near $80,138, about 37% below its all‑time high, while U.S. federal debt has exceeded $40 trillion.

If yields continue to rise while Bitcoin remains range‑bound, the price gap could widen, deepening the disconnect between debt‑related fears and Bitcoin’s market performance. Conversely, yields could rise due to inflation, fiscal stress, or resilient economic growth, which might not directly undermine Bitcoin’s scarcity‑based valuation.

Market Outlook

Bensignor emphasized that his target is not a short‑term forecast but an indication that the 10‑year yield is moving into territory Bitcoin has never experienced. Market participants will need to observe whether Bitcoin behaves more like a “digital gold” store of value or a rate‑sensitive risk asset as yields climb.