Traders Favor September Rate Hike as Bitcoin Holds Near $78,000

Prediction‑market activity on Polymarket shows a quarter‑point Federal Reserve rate hike for the September 15‑16 meeting priced at 55.5% probability, overtaking the hold scenario. The shift follows Chair Kevin Warsh’s remarks at the Jackson Hole symposium, where he said recent inflation data had not convinced him that underlying price pressures were easing.

Bitcoin Holds Near $78,000

Bitcoin traded at $78,317, down 0.65% over 24 hours but unchanged over the past week. The cryptocurrency is up 24.5% since the start of August, positioning the month as its strongest since November 2024. Bitcoin dominance sits at 59.2% as total crypto market value fell 2.6% to $2.65 trillion.

Broader Crypto Market Breadth Weakens

Out of the 125 largest non‑stablecoin tokens, 88 fell on the day while only 34 rose. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index slipped to 62, indicating a move away from greed. Total DeFi value locked declined 0.83% to $87.27 billion.

Key Token Movements

• Ether: $2,464, down 0.61% on the day and 1.1% weekly.
• XRP: $1.37, down 2.4% daily, 7.6% weekly.
• Solana: $103.05, down 3.3% daily but up 9% weekly.
• BNB: $688.55, down 1.5% daily.
• Monero: $513.40, up 2.35% daily, 21.6% weekly.
• Zcash: up 77.4% weekly.
• Seeker (Solana Mobile): largest gainer among top 150 tokens, driven by $362 million 24‑hour volume.
• Polygon (POL): down 14% daily, 23.6% weekly.
• Cronos: down 7.9% after a chain restart.

Fed Rate Outlook and Market Reaction

Polymarket’s event volume rose to $70.9 million, with a 55.5% probability for a rate hike versus 43.5% for a hold. Warsh’s speech emphasized modest progress on inflation and placed responsibility for prolonged price pressures on the central bank, without signaling a definitive policy decision.

Commodities and Equities

Brent crude climbed above $90 per barrel, while gold slipped below $4,450 per ounce, ending its August gain. U.S. equities opened lower, with the S&P 500 down 0.25% and the Nasdaq down 0.52%.

ETF Flows

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $201.9 million of outflows on Friday, ending a five‑day inflow streak. Spot Ether ETFs saw $102.1 million of inflows on the same day.