Trump Predicts Oil Prices Will Remain High Until After Midterms as Brent Hits May Highs

President Donald Trump told reporters that oil prices are unlikely to fall until after the November midterm elections, linking relief at the pump to an expected end of the conflict with Iran. On the same day, Brent crude rose 3.78% to $103 per barrel, its highest level since May, following fresh strikes around the Strait of Hormuz.

Trump’s Political Timeline for Oil

Speaking before traveling to a Republican convention in Dallas, Trump accused Iran of prolonging the war to weaken his party’s prospects in the midterms. He suggested Tehran is near collapse and would seek an end to the war immediately after the vote, though no Iranian official has confirmed any timetable.

Market Reactions

Traders are pricing the conflict into both oil and risk assets. The American Automobile Association reported the national gasoline average at $4.22 per gallon, up from $4.01 a month earlier. In parallel, Bitcoin remained near $79,000.

Political Betting Markets

On the prediction market Polymarket, bettors gave Democrats a 51% chance of sweeping Congress, citing high fuel prices as a factor. Republicans currently control both chambers of Congress, with elections scheduled for November 3.

Historical Context

Historical data shows oil price spikes can affect election outcomes. A World Bank study of 207 elections across 50 democracies found that a 1% oil shock reduces an incumbent’s re‑election odds by 5.9 percentage points. Analysts note that past midterm elections have not directly caused oil price declines; instead, changes in conflict dynamics have driven price movements.

Outlook

Whether Brent crude falls after the election will depend on developments in the Strait of Hormuz, a factor beyond voter influence.