Six Years of Bitcoin Data Show NFP Has Minimal Impact on Price

An extensive review of Bitcoin price movements over the past six years indicates that the U.S. Non‑Farm Payroll (NFP) report is not a major driver of price volatility.

Methodology

Researchers examined daily Bitcoin price data surrounding each NFP release from 2020 to 2025, comparing price changes in the 24‑hour window before and after the report.

Findings

• Average price change in the 24‑hour period after NFP releases was less than 0.5%.
• Only 3 out of 30 NFP events showed price moves exceeding 2%.
• Volatility spikes were more closely linked to broader market events than to the NFP data itself.

Implications for Traders

Traders should treat NFP as a background macroeconomic indicator rather than a primary catalyst for Bitcoin price action. Strategies that rely heavily on NFP timing may need to be re‑evaluated.