XRP Shows Three Bullish Indicators Ahead of Historically Weak October

XRP (XRP) is currently trading near $1.50, down about 6.3% over the past 24 hours but still up more than 15% for the week, reflecting a broader market rally.

Signal 1: Long‑Term Holders Remain Underwater

The 365‑day market‑value‑to‑realized‑value (MVRV) ratio for XRP sits around –11.75%, indicating that the average holder over the past year is at a loss. A low MVRV is often interpreted as limiting downside pressure because fewer holders have profits to take.

Signal 2: Futures Open Interest Rises

Open interest on XRP futures on Binance has climbed to nearly $600 million, a level not seen since January. This figure also sits above its 180‑day moving average of roughly $445 million, suggesting renewed speculative activity. Positive funding rates point to buyer‑driven momentum.

Signal 3: Consistent ETF Inflows

Spot XRP exchange‑traded funds have recorded net inflows every week since mid‑July, marking an 11‑week streak. Weekly inflows typically range from $1 million to $20 million, with a peak of $110.5 million in late August, bringing cumulative net inflows to about $1.75 billion.

Cautionary Factors

• The premium of XRP on Coinbase over Binance has narrowed to roughly 0.0055%, indicating limited US spot buying pressure.
• Historical data shows October has been a weak month for XRP, with the token closing lower in 8 of the last 13 Octobers and an average monthly return of –5.14%.

These three bullish signals could support XRP’s price heading into October, but the extent of US spot demand and broader market conditions will be decisive.