XRP Price Prediction for September 2026: A Repeat Pattern Could Undo August's 28% Rally

XRP surged 28.5% in August, marking its strongest August performance since 2021 and breaking a pattern of losses in that month over the past nine years. The majority of the price boost was driven by inflows in the latter half of the month.

Key Drivers of the August Rally

• Exchange‑traded fund (ETF) buying accelerated, with US spot XRP funds receiving $153.55 million in August.
• Only $3.27 million arrived between August 3‑14, while $150.28 million flowed in during the final two weeks, a 46‑fold increase.
• Despite the large inflows, the amount is modest relative to XRP’s roughly $87 billion market value.

Historical Seasonal Pattern

Historical data shows that in seven of the last eight years, XRP’s September price moved opposite to its August performance. When August rose, September fell, with declines of 14% in 2020 and 19.6% in 2021.

Wallet Activity During the Rally

• Wallets holding XRP for three to six months reduced their share of supply from 6.41% on August 8 to 5.76% by the reporting date.
• Short‑term holders (one week to one month) increased their share from 1.68% on July 31 to 3.22%.

Technical Outlook

XRP is trading near $1.36, within a falling channel that has persisted since January. It remains below the 200‑period EMA ($1.56). The critical zone is $1.34‑$1.36, where the 100‑period EMA and the first retracement level converge. A break below could expose support at $1.15, $0.98 and $0.81, with a potential decline toward $0.58 if the pattern repeats.

Potential Catalysts

The Federal Reserve’s September 15‑16 meeting may influence market sentiment. A decisive move above $1.69, the August high, would be required for a sustained upward shift.