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ECB Hawkish Pivot vs Dollar Turmoil: Why Euro Is Testing 1.17
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#Shorts Euro vs US Dollar: the ECB tightening outlook is offering fresh support to the single currency, with EUR/USD trading near 1.1663 after touching three-month highs above 1.1700 on the 24th of August 2026. In this video, I break down why the market now prices a 96 per cent probability of a 25 basis point European Central Bank deposit rate hike in September, taking the rate from 2.25 per cent to 2.50 per cent, and what that means for the euro's near-term path against a struggling US dollar. You will learn how July's re-acceleration in eurozone inflation to 2.9 per cent, driven by a 10 per cent year-on-year energy spike, forced Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel to warn that further rate hikes remain necessary. I also examine BNY's revised EUR/USD targets of 1.12 over three months and 1.15 over twelve months, and why these levels imply a meaningful pullback from current spot…
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Analysis last updated August 27, 2026 · Read the methodologyRead the creator’s original video description
#Shorts Euro vs US Dollar: the ECB tightening outlook is offering fresh support to the single currency, with EUR/USD trading near 1.1663 after touching three-month highs above 1.1700 on the 24th of August 2026. In this video, I break down why the market now prices a 96 per cent probability of a 25 basis point European Central Bank deposit rate hike in September, taking the rate from 2.25 per cent to 2.50 per cent, and what that means for the euro's near-term path against a struggling US dollar. You will learn how July's re-acceleration in eurozone inflation to 2.9 per cent, driven by a 10 per cent year-on-year energy spike, forced Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel to warn that further rate hikes remain necessary. I also examine BNY's revised EUR/USD targets of 1.12 over three months and 1.15 over twelve months, and why these levels imply a meaningful pullback from current spot despite the hawkish tone. You will also see why the euro's strength is itself tightening financial conditions, and how that complicates the ECB's choices at the September meeting. • Why EUR/USD surged to three-month highs above 1.1700 on US Treasury market turmoil and softer American data • How Isabel Schnabel's August 26 warning about inflation risks, gas prices and low storage levels changed the hiking calculus • What July's 2.9 per cent HICP inflation and 10 per cent energy inflation mean for the 2 per cent target • Why BNY's Geoff Yu says the euro is already doing some of the ECB's tightening work • The real significance of BNY's 1.12 three-month and 1.15 twelve-month EUR/USD targets • What to watch at the ECB's September meeting when the deposit rate is expected to hit 2.50 per cent Make sure you watch until the end because I explain the exact level that could decide whether this euro rally extends or rolls over, and why the market may be getting ahead of itself. This video is relevant if you follow ECB interest rate decisions, EUR/USD forecasts, eurozone inflation data, US dollar weakness, central bank divergence, BNY currency outlook, Isabel Schnabel speeches, September ECB meetings, euro exchange rate levels, or daily forex news today. ▶️ Full video: Chapters: 00:00 Today's Euro Snapshot 00:45 Why the ECB Shifted Gears 01:36 How a Strong Euro Bites Back 02:23 September Hike: Priced In or Risky? 03:12 The Takeaway for Traders and Travellers #Shorts #EurUsdForecast #EcbInterestRate #EuroDollarAnalysis #EcbRateHike #EurozoneInflation #IsabelSchnabel #BnyCurrencyOutlook #UsDollarWeakness #ForexNewsToday