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Most Venture Funds Are Playing Momentum Games | Michael Dempsey
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Join José as he hosts another episode of the Emerging Manager series on the Delphi Podcast, sitting down with Michael Dempsey, managing partner of Compound. Michael makes the case that most venture funds being raised today are playing momentum games that won't survive contact with a real cycle, and explains why Compound has become known as one of the slowest-deploying seed funds in the US. They dive into the fallacy of founder legibility, why paying up at seed doesn't improve outcomes, and how the firm's research edge decayed the moment anyone could drop an academic paper into ChatGPT. Michael shares Compound's portfolio construction math, the thesis behind their public markets fund and the coming decade of market cap destruction, where he's investing across bio, materials, and robotics, and why the humanoid narrative is far more fragile than the market believes. Timestamps 00:00 Intro…
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Analysis last updated August 25, 2026 · Read the methodologyRead the creator’s original video description
Join José as he hosts another episode of the Emerging Manager series on the Delphi Podcast, sitting down with Michael Dempsey, managing partner of Compound. Michael makes the case that most venture funds being raised today are playing momentum games that won't survive contact with a real cycle, and explains why Compound has become known as one of the slowest-deploying seed funds in the US. They dive into the fallacy of founder legibility, why paying up at seed doesn't improve outcomes, and how the firm's research edge decayed the moment anyone could drop an academic paper into ChatGPT. Michael shares Compound's portfolio construction math, the thesis behind their public markets fund and the coming decade of market cap destruction, where he's investing across bio, materials, and robotics, and why the humanoid narrative is far more fragile than the market believes. Timestamps 00:00 Intro 01:24 Why Momentum Investing Fails in Venture 05:05 Price, Legibility, and the Myth of the Obvious Founder 15:10 Research as Edge and the Problem With Obviousness 32:31 Portfolio Construction and Shots on Goal 39:04 Bio, Materials, and the Commoditization of Intelligence 43:44 Public Markets, Software Margins, and the Short Side 56:58 Meta, Google, and the Mag 7 1:06:45 Crypto, Robotics, and Drone Warfare 1:21:38 Therapy, Psychedelics, and Writing 💡 Want to stay updated with the latest in crypto & AI? Hit