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Bitcoin’s value retracement from its new all-time excessive of $108,353 on Tuesday to round $96,000 (a -11.5% pullback) has ignited intense hypothesis about whether or not the present bull cycle is nearing its peak. To deal with rising uncertainty, Rafael Schultze-Kraft, co-founder of on-chain analytics supplier Glassnode, launched a thread on X detailing 18 on-chain metrics and fashions. “The place is the Bitcoin TOP?” Schultze-Kraft requested, earlier than laying out his detailed evaluation.
Has Bitcoin Reached Its Cycle Prime?
1/ MVRV Ratio: A longstanding measure of unrealized profitability, the MVRV ratio compares market worth to realized worth. Traditionally, readings above 7 signaled overheated circumstances. “At present hovering round 3 – room to develop,” Schultze-Kraft famous. This means that, when it comes to combination unrealized revenue, the market just isn’t but at ranges which have beforehand coincided with macro tops.
2/ MVRV Pricing Bands: These bands are derived from the variety of days MVRV has spent at excessive ranges. The highest band (3.2) has been exceeded for under about 6% of buying and selling days traditionally. In the present day, this high band corresponds to a value of $127,000. On condition that Bitcoin sits at round $98,000, the market has not but reached a zone that traditionally marked high formations.
3/ Lengthy-Time period Holder Profitability (Relative Unrealized Revenue & LTH-NUPL): Lengthy-term holders (LTHs) are thought-about extra steady market members. Their Internet Unrealized Revenue/Loss (NUPL) metric is at present at 0.75, coming into what Schultze-Kraft phrases the “euphoria zone.” He remarked that within the 2021 cycle, Bitcoin ran one other ~3x after hitting related ranges (although he clarified he’s not essentially anticipating a repetition). Historic high formations usually noticed LTH-NUPL readings above 0.9. Thus, whereas the metric is elevated, it has not but reached earlier cycle extremes.
Notably, Schultze-Kraft admitted his observations could also be conservative as a result of the 2021 cycle peaked at considerably decrease profitability values than prior cycles. “I might’ve anticipated these profitability metrics to achieve barely larger ranges,” he defined. This may increasingly sign diminishing peaks over successive cycles. Buyers must be conscious that historic extremes might turn out to be much less pronounced over time.
4/ Yearly Realized Revenue/Loss Ratio: This metric measures the whole realized income relative to realized losses over the previous yr. Earlier cycle tops have seen values above 700%. At present at round 580%, it nonetheless exhibits “room to develop” earlier than reaching ranges traditionally related to market tops.
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5/ Market Cap To Thermocap Ratio: An early on-chain metric, it compares Bitcoin’s complete market capitalization to the cumulative mining price (Thermocap). In prior bull runs, the ratio’s extremes aligned with market tops. Schultze-Kraft advises warning with particular goal ranges however notes that present ranges usually are not near earlier extremes. The market stays under historic thermocap multiples that indicated overheated circumstances prior to now.
6/ Thermocap Multiples (32-64x): Traditionally, Bitcoin has topped at roughly 32-64 instances the Thermocap. “We’re on the backside of this vary,” stated Schultze-Kraft. Hitting the highest band in right now’s atmosphere would suggest a Bitcoin market cap simply above $4 trillion. On condition that present market capitalization ($1.924 trillion) is considerably decrease, this means the potential for substantial upside if historic patterns had been to carry.
7/ The Investor Device (2-Yr SMA x5): The Investor Device applies a 2-year Easy Shifting Common (SMA) of value and a 5x a number of of that SMA to sign potential high zones. “Which at present denotes $230,000,” Schultze-Kraft famous. Since Bitcoin’s present value is effectively beneath this stage, the indicator has not but flashed an unequivocal high sign.
8/ Bitcoin Worth Temperature (BPT6): This mannequin makes use of deviations from a 4-year transferring common to seize cyclical value extremes. Traditionally, BPT6 was reached in earlier bull markets, and that band now sits at $151,000. With Bitcoin at $98,000, the market continues to be wanting ranges beforehand related to peak overheating.
9/ The True Market Imply & AVIV: The True Market Imply is an alternate price foundation mannequin. Its MVRV-equivalent, referred to as AVIV, measures how far the market strays from this imply. Traditionally, tops have seen greater than 3 commonplace deviations. In the present day’s equal “quantities to values above ~2.3,” whereas the present studying is 1.7. “Room to develop,” Schultze-Kraft stated, implying that by this metric, the market just isn’t but stretched to its historic extremes.
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10/ Low/Mid/Prime Cap Fashions (Delta Cap Derivatives): These fashions, primarily based on the Delta Cap metric, traditionally confirmed diminished values through the 2021 cycle, by no means reaching the ‘Prime Cap.’ Schultze-Kraft urges warning in deciphering these as a result of evolving market constructions. At present, the mid cap stage sits at about $4 trillion, roughly a 2x from present ranges. If the market adopted earlier patterns, this may permit for appreciable progress earlier than hitting ranges attribute of earlier tops.
11/ Worth Days Destroyed A number of (VDDM): This metric gauges the spending conduct of long-held cash relative to the annual common. Traditionally, excessive values above 2.9 indicated that older cash had been closely hitting the market, usually throughout late-stage bull markets. Presently, it’s at 2.2, not but at excessive ranges. “Room to develop,” Schultze-Kraft famous, suggesting not all long-term holders have absolutely capitulated to profit-taking.
12/ The Mayer A number of: The Mayer A number of compares value to the 200-day SMA. Overbought circumstances in earlier cycles aligned with values above 2.4. At present, a Mayer A number of above 2.4 would correspond to a value of roughly $167,000. With Bitcoin beneath $100,000, this threshold stays distant.
13/ The Cycle Extremes Oscillator Chart: This composite makes use of a number of binary indicators (MVRV, aSOPR, Puell A number of, Reserve Threat) to sign cycle extremes. “At present 2/4 are on,” which means solely half of the tracked circumstances for an overheated market are met. Earlier tops aligned with a full suite of triggered alerts. As such, the chart suggests the cycle has not but reached the depth of a full-blown peak.
14/ Pi Cycle Prime Indicator: A price-based sign that has traditionally recognized cycle peaks by evaluating the short-term and long-term transferring averages. “At present the brief transferring common sits effectively under the bigger ($74k vs. $129k),” Schultze-Kraft stated, indicating no crossover and thus no traditional high sign.
15/ Promote-Aspect Threat Ratio (LTH Model): This ratio compares complete realized income and losses to the realized market capitalization. Excessive values correlate with unstable, late-stage bull markets. “The attention-grabbing zone is at 0.8% and above, whereas we’re at present at 0.46% – room to develop,” Schultze-Kraft defined. This suggests that, regardless of latest profit-taking, the market has not but entered the extreme promote strain zone usually seen close to tops.
16/ LTH Inflation Charge: Schultze-Kraft highlighted the Lengthy-Time period Holder Inflation Charge as “essentially the most bearish chart I’ve come throughout to this point.” Whereas he didn’t present particular goal values or thresholds on this excerpt, he said it “screams warning.” Buyers ought to monitor this carefully as it could sign rising distribution from long-term holders or different structural headwinds.
17/ STH-SOPR (Brief-Time period Holder Spent Output Revenue Ratio): This metric measures the profit-taking conduct of short-term holders. “At present elevated, however not sustained,” Schultze-Kraft famous. In different phrases, whereas short-term members are taking income, the info doesn’t but present the form of persistent, aggressive profit-taking typical of a market high.
18/ SLRV Ribbons: These ribbons observe developments in short- and long-term realized worth. Traditionally, when each transferring averages high out and cross over, it signifies a market turning level. “Each transferring averages nonetheless trending up, solely turns into bearish at rounded tops and crossover. No indication of a high presently,” Schultze-Kraft said.
General, Schultze-Kraft emphasised that these metrics shouldn’t be utilized in isolation. “By no means depend on single knowledge factors – confluence is your buddy,” he suggested. He acknowledged that it is a non-comprehensive checklist and that Bitcoin’s evolving ecosystem—now with ETFs, regulatory readability, institutional adoption, and geopolitical elements—might render historic comparisons much less dependable. “This cycle can look vastly completely different, but (historic) knowledge is all we’ve got,” he concluded.
Whereas quite a few metrics present that Bitcoin’s market is transferring into extra euphoric and worthwhile territory, few have reached the historic extremes that marked earlier cycle tops. Indicators like MVRV, profitability ratios, thermal metrics, and varied price-based fashions typically counsel “room to develop,” though not less than one—LTH Inflation Charge—raises a observe of warning. Some composites are solely partially triggered, whereas traditional high alerts equivalent to Pi Cycle Prime stay inactive.
At press time, BTC traded at $96,037.
Featured picture created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com