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“Markets Each day” kicks off a brand new format with a minute of market updates, adopted by an interview with a rotating solid of market analysts throughout the crypto house. At this time, host Jennifer Sanasie speaks with Markus Thielen a few potential March BTC droop, clarifications on two leaked investor stories and a bullish worth prediction for bitcoin on the finish of 2024.
This episode was hosted by Jennifer Sanasie. “Markets Each day” is govt produced by Jared Schwartz and produced and edited by Eleanor Pahl, alongside Senior Reserving Producer Melissa Montanez. All authentic music by Doc Blust and Colin Mealey.
Audio Transcript: This transcript has not been edited and should comprise errors.
JENNIFER SANASIE:
It is Thursday, January 4 2024, and that is “Markets Each day” from CoinDesk. I am your host Jennifer Sanasie. Let’s dive into these costs. In accordance with CoinDesk indices at 8 a.m. Jap Time, bitcoin was buying and selling up 1.7% over the previous 24 hours at $43,416. Ether was almost flat over the identical time interval at $2,237. At this time’s mover within the CoinDesk Market Index is the Ethereum Identify Service, ticker ENS, up over 50% on the day. In conventional markets, shares prolonged their second day of losses because the NASDAQ fell 1.18% yesterday, whereas the S&P 500 slipped 0.8%. And in commodities, the Brent crude oil benchmark fell barely, buying and selling at $73.36 a barrel as of 8 a.m. Jap Time. In the meantime, gold was buying and selling at $2,053 an oz., almost flat on the day. For extra on the markets motion, let’s usher in Matrixport Head of Analysis and Technique Markus Thielen.
MARKUS THIELEN:
Good morning. Thanks for having me.
JENNIFER SANASIE:
Thanks for being right here. Now I gotta get you to clear one thing up for us proper off the bat. Matrixport lately stated that they count on the SEC to reject all ETF functions. However folks on X are a bit bit upset, Marcus, as a result of earlier this month, simply earlier than this report got here out, Matrixport additionally stated that we are able to count on bitcoin to hit $50,000 due to the anticipation of spot bitcoin ETF. So which one is it? How are you enthusiastic about this?
MARKUS THIELEN:
Yeah, thanks for giving me the chance to make clear. Yeah, after all, our stories for shoppers. So you understand, it is a bit bit unlucky that these stories had been leaked, actually, as a result of what we needed to do is de facto simply clarify to our shoppers what we predict goes to occur. And, after all, the stories that had been leaked, it is largely the duvet pages did not actually say a lot. So our view has modified primarily based on two parts. Primary, there’s really a change out there construction and a few technical indicators that now we have. And I can elaborate on this a bit bit additional. But additionally, we did not see the enhancements within the filings within the S1 filings from the issuance. Whereas we anticipated primarily based on the historic evaluation over the past three halving cycles, what we normally are likely to have is now we have a robust sort of the rally for the start of the yr, after which now we have a pretend out. After which we make a low in March. And what really occurred, we had been anticipating, we had been hoping that we might squeeze to start with within the first couple of days, actually into the brand new $50,000 stage. However what after all occurred is that, you understand, the U.S. inventory market began to unload. So the momentum was not there from a broad, liquidity and asset facet, after which we bought a technical sign. So we run, you understand, one thing like 40+ fashions, like day by day across the high 100 tokens. And for the primary time since principally August final yr, we began to have a bearish sign for bitcoin. And this, after all, made us very, very cautious as a result of, you understand, the chance is kind of excessive that this is sort of a profitable, you understand, sign. And naturally, we anticipated that this rally was really fizzling out. And the 2 stories you’re referring to at least one was issued on Tuesday, and one was issued on Wednesday, after the sign. So there was, after all, a 24 hour distinction between these stories. However for us, it was actually like a gentle distinction. But additionally, as I used to be saying, since Dec. 8, now we have been warning that there could possibly be some vary buying and selling and a few sort of you understand, revenue taking forward of any approvals. And that is sort of emphasised by way of how folks ought to handle the danger, how folks placed on place. And the report we issued yesterday, was emphasizing that buyers can use put choices and actually defend your portfolio as a result of we might see a extremely massive transfer up or down and we sort of anticipated the transfer, probably be down as a result of we’re nonetheless sort of cautious if these ETFs are actually going to be accredited.
JENNIFER SANASIE:
Alright, so Marcus, it sounds such as you’re saying bearish instances forward whereas nearly all of the parents I’ve spoken to lately suppose that we’re kicking off a bull market.
MARKUS THIELEN:
Properly we nonetheless stay bullish for this yr. We simply count on, you understand, a hiccup and a push out of among the these choices are on the ETF and as I used to be saying, this goes very a lot in hand of with the sample evaluation that in these, you understand, halving years, you are likely to see like a decline into form of just like the March interval earlier than the market begins to rally. And once more, you are , for instance, how the NASDAQ is performing within the first couple of buying and selling days. I imply, this doesn’t suggest it appears like an excellent bullish surroundings proper now. In order that’s why I feel it is form of from a buying and selling perspective it’s warranted and we had been simply merely highlighting from a danger administration perspective. It simply is smart to place an fairness portfolio for one thing like 1.6%. And simply sort of like wait, wait out this era.
JENNIFER SANASIE:
All proper now inform us a bit bit extra about that technical evaluation. How does that truly relate to the SEC’s pending resolution? Why do you suppose that the SEC may reject all spot ETFs? Speak to us about this technical evaluation and the SEC.
MARKUS THIELEN:
It is a technical buying and selling mannequin that appears at patterns. And the sample was indicating that, you understand, the long run return over the following two weeks is a 7% decline to one thing like $42,000. And it simply sort of was filling sort of just like the toolbox that we’re utilizing from sort of these buying and selling techniques are buying and selling indicators, in addition to market construction evaluation and market construction evaluation, for instance, will we see liquidity coming into the market or leaving the market? Can we see, for instance, the funding charges being massively excessive the funding charges crossed over 60%. And naturally, then, open curiosity has additionally elevated from one thing like $7 billion to $12 billion. So there have been loads of lengthy positions out there. And the way in which how we had been buying and selling, you understand, within the first couple of days of the yr was actually, that it is all futures pushed. And we form of felt by way of our market construction evaluation, that the market is kind of susceptible. Plus, then after all, we bought the sign from our buying and selling system that might point out that we’d see a selloff which, you understand, we sort of bought.
JENNIFER SANASIE:
And what ought to buyers and merchants be carefully this morning? If we glance perhaps exterior of bitcoin within the potential ETF, what ought to merchants be watching?
MARKUS THIELEN:
Yeah, I imply, now we have been very centered on the volatility market, proper on the choice market, how individuals are positioned, you understand, the place they’re specializing in. In any other case, after all, if we get the approval for an ETF, you understand, we predict the momentum will shift in a short time into Ethereum. As a result of Ethereum can be up for for the following spherical of probably approvals by Could and you’d count on then you are going to see some massive outperformance of Ethereum over bitcoin, we’ve not actually seen over the past sort of like one or two weeks that the bitcoin dominance ratio has declined from 53% to close 50%. So 50%, roughly aligned within the sense that it is actually sort of an altcoin season that the bull market is broadening out. And we do count on larger costs occurring this yr, and possibly a brand new excessive for this yr, as you understand, you understand, I have been very bullish available on the market. However we additionally attempt to commerce the small sort of momentum or occasions the place we predict the market is susceptible. And we simply tried to be, you understand, sensible by way of a danger administration method.
JENNIFER SANASIE:
Let’s speak about a yr from now, I am glad you introduced up Ethereum. In fact, there is a spot ether ETF additionally pending that I am positive we’ll be speaking about as soon as the spot bitcoin ETF is proved, however a yr from now, what does the worth of bitcoin appear to be? And then again, what does the worth of ether appear to be?
MARKUS THIELEN:
Properly, we hope that it is gonna get nearer to $100,000. In fact, we count on that ultimately, these ETFs will probably be accredited, we simply suppose there is sort of a key part probably lacking within the approval course of, nevertheless it may be pushed out in a few months. So we’re not saying that is by no means going to occur. We simply suppose that it may not be all fulfilled, what the SEC is de facto in search of. And in that case, it’d take a few extra months, however I feel then we count on the market to essentially broaden out. And you understand, to rally one other set, we in all probability make it make a brand new excessive return.
JENNIFER SANASIE:
All proper, what’s that new excessive, although? Finish of 2024? December 2024? What is the worth of bitcoin?
MARKUS THIELEN:
We are likely to suppose it will be you understand, $80k. In fact, it is a transferring goal. I imply, final yr we bought to just about spot on. So I do not suppose we bought to be, you understand, as profitable as final yr was our prediction, however I feel we’re gonna make a brand new excessive and I feel, you understand, 100% from right here is feasible whenever you have a look at these final three having cycles, 2012 2016 and 2020, bitcoin really rallied almost 200%. So 200% this may get us to, you understand, $120,000. However I feel in the event you’re not too grasping and be pleased with 100%, it is gonna get us to $80,000. So I might, I might wager to be going to get to $80,000
JENNIFER SANASIE:
I do know, final yr whenever you made that prediction, I used to be a bit bit skeptical. After which as the worth of bitcoin began to rally close to the top of the yr, I believed, I thought of you, Marcus, your prediction was fairly bang on final yr. All proper, and we gotta go. However what do you suppose the worth of ether goes to be on the finish of 24? Simply actually rapidly.
MARKUS THIELEN:
I feel it will be barely above $3000.
JENNIFER SANASIE:
All proper, Marcus, thanks a lot for becoming a member of us. Matrixport Head of Analysis and Technique Markus Thielen. That is it for right now’s present.