In an interview with CNBC’s Road Indicators on February 27, Geoffrey Kendrick, Head of Digital Asset Analysis at Customary Chartered, supplied insights on Bitcoin’s latest worth decline and laid out a daring forecast for the world’s largest cryptocurrency. Regardless of near-term volatility, Kendrick expects Bitcoin to succeed in $200,000 this yr and as excessive as $500,000 earlier than the top of President Trump’s time period.
Bitcoin Crash? No Downside!
Kendrick opened the dialogue by noting the affect of political developments on investor sentiment: “So I believe the Trump Administration will likely be optimistic medium time period. So we got here into January 20, hoping for quite a bit and you possibly can argue there was already numerous positivity priced in.”
He highlighted the instant post-inauguration shift in regulatory stance—particularly, the elimination of SAB 121, which he described as having “been hampering monetary establishments.” Kendrick additionally addressed the dearth of a broadly anticipated strategic Bitcoin reserve, changed as a substitute by a “stockpile” method. In line with Kendrick: “The stockpile for me is okay as a result of it legitimizes different sovereigns […] each inside the US [and outside]. A variety of US states are contemplating holding Bitcoin on their steadiness sheet.”
Nonetheless, markets have been rattled by contemporary uncertainties. Kendrick pointed to ongoing commerce conflict and geopolitical flashpoints: “Initiatives within the final couple of weeks have been very complicated for danger property […] tariffs on and off. Canada, Mexico, EU […] clearly some potential positives coming round Ukraine and or the Center East however nothing stable actually on any of these and danger property don’t like uncertainty.”
Inside the crypto sphere particularly, he cited the Bybit hack, bother with the Solana meme coin scams, and a typically “complicated” atmosphere as contributors to the pullback. Kendrick underscored the cascading impact on Bitcoin.
When requested whether or not Bitcoin stays a real diversifier amid its correlation with equities, Kendrick maintained a nuanced view: “Definitely after we see giant strikes like we’ve seen in the previous few weeks […] on the adverse path danger property all commerce collectively […] Medium-term, I believe the diversification story is cheap […] The use case for Bitcoin particularly is to diversify in opposition to dangers round conventional monetary markets.”
Kendrick additionally addressed the massive outflows from the spot ETFs since Trump’s inauguration: “Even within the final week, we’ve seen about $3 billion of outflows when it comes to ETFs […] we bought to a web place of about $40 billion of inflows over the primary 12 months of these ETFs within the US […] however within the final week or so we’ve seen $3 billion of outflows.”
He estimates that those that purchased Bitcoin post-election in November at the moment are “closely underwater” to the tune of $2 billion in paper losses. This newer cohort of holders, mixed with the sector’s still-robust retail participation, has amplified volatility: “It’s far more tough for traders then to carry by losses […] once you see strikes like we noticed this week, you are inclined to get some panic promoting.”
$200,000 Goal Nonetheless In Play
He additionally reiterated the necessity for deeper institutional participation—citing banks like Customary Chartered and funding giants corresponding to BlackRock—to enhance custody options and scale back the frequency of such hacks just like the Bybit one, resulting in damaging headlines:
“Because the business turns into extra institutionalized it ought to be safer […] hopefully we get some regulatory readability within the US too […] that ought to add to that medium-term prime aspect potential which for me is Bitcoin as much as $200,000 this yr and $500,000 earlier than Trump leaves workplace.”
Trying forward, Kendrick underscored that regulatory readability—notably round stablecoin guidelines and KYC—might set off a wave of institutional and even sovereign capital inflows. He recognized long-term public pension funds and sovereign wealth funds as pivotal market movers, referencing the Abu Dhabi Sovereign Wealth Fund’s buy of 4,700 BTC-equivalent shares within the BlackRock ETF on the finish of 2024:
“There’s that very long-term sector that’s nonetheless to take part extra […] after which additionally Sovereign so the one Sovereign that we all know to date has purchased the ETFs is Abu Sovereign wealth fund […] I’d anticipate extra of that to come back by this yr as nicely.”
At press time, BTC traded at $81,428.
Featured picture from YouTube, chart from TradingView.com