- Solana climbed to $125, however whale exits and dense provide zones close to $140 raised the chance of an extended squeeze.
- The current bounce seemed extra like a brief reduction rally.
Regardless of Solana’s[SOL] current restoration to $120, massive holders stay deep within the purple, which impacts the general market sentiment.
On-chain information reveals a serious whale lately liquidated 274,188 SOL at a mean worth of $108. With an preliminary price foundation of $148, this capitulation locked in a staggering $11 million in realized losses.
Even with SOL now hovering round $125, marking a 30% bounce from its April 7 low of $95, the whale would nonetheless be underwater.
This habits displays continued distribution amongst good cash, as whales use liquidity spikes to exit fairly than accumulate. For retail merchants, it’s a warning flag amid a fragile macro and on-chain backdrop.
Key provide zone in focus
The UTXO Realized Worth Distribution (URPD) offers a granular breakdown of the place Solana cash have been final transacted and mapped towards worth ranges.
For SOL, the information highlights three main provide clusters – round $100, $120, and $140. These concentrations point out {that a} important share of the circulating provide was acquired at these ranges.
Amongst them, the $140 zone stands out, with over 27.8 million SOL concentrated there, accounting for about 4.75% of the entire circulating provide.
This cluster represents a key space of resistance, as many holders are both close to breakeven or going through unrealized losses.
Supply: Glassnode
Due to this fact, the chance of whale-driven sell-offs stays if SOL fails to reclaim the $140 degree. A worth transfer again to this threshold may result in holders shifting into unrealized income, probably triggering a bullish rotation pushed by FOMO and market greed.
Moreover, 38 million SOL stay clustered between $117 and $120, making this vary a possible hotspot for profit-taking as worth breaks this ceiling.
Because of this, till the $140 degree is examined, worth volatility in Solana’s worth motion is prone to persist.
Futures information reinforces Solana’s market outlook
Solana’s 7.07% day by day upswing positions it because the main top-tier asset by way of restoration velocity.
This rally isn’t simply spot-driven — Derivatives information confirms aggressive positioning. Open Curiosity (OI) jumped 13.89% to $5.23 billion, signaling a recent wave of leveraged publicity coming into the market.
At first look, this seems bullish. Nevertheless, it additionally introduces fragility.
The whale distribution was nonetheless energetic, and Brief-Time period Holders (3–6 months) are nonetheless deep within the capitulation zone. Plus, the current breach of a high-density provide zone ($117–$120) units the stage for elevated liquidation threat.
Supply: TradingView (SOL/USDT)
Ought to Solana fail to maintain momentum, a cascading lengthy squeeze may set off sharp draw back volatility, significantly as funding charges begin skewing constructive.
In brief, whereas the current bounce has sparked optimism, this rally bears hallmarks of a liquidity-driven reduction section—not a confirmed pattern reversal.
Till Solana reclaims and holds above the $140 provide zone with conviction, draw back threat stays firmly on the desk.