Key Takeaways:
Bitcoin community economist Timothy Peterson raised Bitcoin’s (BTC) probabilities of hitting a brand new excessive in 100 days, and he maintains an optimistic outlook in 2025.
In an evaluation shared on X that ties BTC’s worth motion to the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) —an indicator that measures 30-day market volatility expectations — the analyst identified that the VIX index has dropped from 55 to 25 over the previous 50 buying and selling days. A VIX rating under 18 implied a “risk-on” setting, favoring property like Bitcoin.
Peterson’s mannequin, which had a 95% monitoring accuracy, predicted a $135,000 goal throughout the subsequent 100 days if the VIX stays low. This aligns with Bitcoin’s sensitivity to market sentiment, as a low VIX reduces uncertainty, encouraging funding in riskier property.
Talking on Bitcoin’s volatility, Constancy’s director of worldwide macro, Jurrien Timmer, in contrast Bitcoin’s nature to “Dr.Jekyll and Mr.Hyde.” Timmer believed Bitcoin’s capability to behave as each a retailer of worth (Dr. Jekyll) and a speculative asset (Mr. Hyde) differentiates it from gold, which stays a constant “exhausting cash” asset. Timmer emphasised the dynamics between Bitcoin and the worldwide cash provide and stated,
“Notice that when M2 has grown and the inventory market is rallying, Bitcoin has been off to the races as a result of it has each attributes working for it. However when M2 has grown and equities are correcting, not a lot.”
This underscores Bitcoin’s sensitivity to macroeconomic situations, making its efficiency much less predictable than gold’s.
Associated: Crypto ‘decoupling’ story ends as shares comply with Bitcoin’s rally
Stablecoin market cap hits file $220 billion
Information from CryptoQuant highlighted that the stablecoin market capitalization hit a file $220 billion, signaling a liquidity surge within the crypto market. This marks Bitcoin’s exit from a bearish part as capital flows return, and with stablecoins representing crypto liquidity, new BTC highs may very well be a possible end result within the coming weeks.
Whereas BTC continues its uptrend, lower-time body (LTF) charts reveal a shift in market dynamics. The funding price for BTC futures has turned damaging once more, indicating an increase in brief positions as merchants wager in opposition to the rally.
The 4-hour chart’s funding price has reached its most damaging stage in 2025, indicating that short-side liquidity considerably exceeds long-side liquidity. This creates a situation for a possible quick squeeze.
This imbalance may propel BTC towards the $100,000 stage. Cointelegraph identified that over $3 billion is in danger for a short-side liquidation, which can amplify upward momentum, catching bearish merchants off guard.
Associated: Bitcoin hodler unrealized income close to 350% as $100K dangers sell-off
This text doesn’t include funding recommendation or suggestions. Each funding and buying and selling transfer entails danger, and readers ought to conduct their very own analysis when making a call.