Sovereign funding in Bitcoin is accelerating—simply not at all times in probably the most direct method. In a brand new report, Commonplace Chartered Financial institution says oblique publicity by way of Technique (previously MicroStrategy) is quietly rising amongst authorities entities, reinforcing the financial institution’s long-standing worth prediction that Bitcoin will attain $500,000 earlier than President Donald Trump leaves workplace in 2029.
“The newest 13F knowledge from the U.S. Securities and Alternate Fee (SEC) helps our core thesis that Bitcoin (BTC) will attain the $500,000 degree earlier than Trump leaves workplace because it attracts a wider vary of institutional consumers,” wrote Geoffrey Kendrick, Commonplace Chartered’s international head of digital property analysis. “As extra traders achieve entry to the asset and as volatility falls, we consider portfolios will migrate in direction of their optimum degree from an underweight beginning place in BTC.”
Q1 13F filings revealed a slowdown in direct bitcoin ETF shopping for—Wisconsin’s state fund exited its whole 3,400 BTC-equivalent IBIT place—whereas government-linked purchases of MSTR shares had been on the rise. Abu Dhabi’s Mubadala, as an illustration, upped its IBIT publicity to five,000 BTC equal, however Kendrick says the larger story is elsewhere.
“We consider that in some instances, MSTR holdings by authorities entities mirror a need to realize Bitcoin publicity the place native laws don’t permit direct BTC holdings,” he mentioned.
France and Saudi Arabia took first-time MSTR positions in Q1. In the meantime, Norway’s Authorities Pension Fund, the Swiss Nationwide Financial institution, and South Korea’s public funds every added publicity equal to 700 BTC. U.S. retirement funds in states like California and New York added a mixed 1,000 BTC equal by way of MSTR. Kendrick known as the development “very encouraging.”
“The quarterly 13F knowledge is one of the best take a look at of our thesis that BTC will entice new institutional purchaser sorts because the market matures, serving to the worth attain our USD 500,000 degree,” Kendrick mentioned. “When establishments purchase Bitcoin, costs are likely to rise.”
This isn’t Kendrick’s first bullish name. Final month, he admitted his prior $120K forecast for Q2 2025 was “too low,” citing surging inflows into U.S. spot BTC ETFs—totaling $5.3 billion over simply three weeks. On the time, Kendrick revised his 2025 year-end goal to $200,000.
Commonplace Chartered’s newest evaluation exhibits that Bitcoin’s position in institutional portfolios is maturing past tech volatility correlation—now more and more seen as a macro hedge. “It’s now all about flows,” Kendrick mentioned. “And flows are coming in lots of kinds.”