Key takeaways:
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Bitcoin bulls purpose to push BTC above $110,000 by Might 30 to capitalize on $4.8 billion in name choices.
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Spot BTC ETF inflows and weak put positioning give bulls a robust edge within the month-to-month expiry.
Bitcoin (BTC) is approaching its largest month-to-month choices expiry of 2025, with complete publicity reaching $13.8 billion. This occasion provides bulls an opportunity to safe Bitcoin’s worth above $110,000, as bears had been caught off guard by a 25% rally over the previous 30 days.
The open curiosity in Bitcoin put (promote) choices stands at $6.5 billion, however 95% of those positions are set beneath $109,000. Subsequently, if Bitcoin’s worth holds close to present ranges, lower than $350 million price of put choices will stay related at expiry.
Conversely, the open curiosity in Bitcoin name (purchase) choices as much as $109,000 totals $3.8 billion. Nonetheless, this imbalance doesn’t imply each name possibility holder was betting on Bitcoin’s rise. Some merchants might have bought these choices as a strategy to hedge their publicity above sure worth ranges.
Among the many most vital possibility methods traded at Deribit up to now two weeks is the “quick name,” which is usually utilized by traders looking for a fixed-income return so long as Bitcoin’s worth stays above a selected threshold. Equally, the “bull name unfold” technique hedges in opposition to draw back threat by sacrificing good points above a sure worth.
Robust Bitcoin ETF inflows cut back the percentages of additional worth decline
If Bitcoin maintains the $109,000 stage, most bullish methods ought to ship optimistic ends in the Might choices expiry. Nonetheless, bears might attempt to affect BTC futures markets to restrict their losses because the expiry date approaches.
The overall open curiosity in Bitcoin futures is presently $79 billion, exhibiting robust demand for brief (promote) positions. Nonetheless, this technique may backfire if Bitcoin rises above $110,000, as bears may be compelled to shut their positions.
Web inflows of $1.9 billion into US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) between Might 20 and Might 22 point out that demand above $105,000 stays strong. Finally, bears’ foremost hope lies in a weaker macroeconomic setting, which may improve threat aversion and cut back demand for Bitcoin.
Associated: Bitcoin hits new highs within the absence of ‘unhealthy’ leverage use — Will the rally proceed?
Bitcoin bulls purpose for $110,000 by Might 30
Beneath are 4 doubtless situations primarily based on present worth developments. These outcomes estimate theoretical income primarily based on open curiosity imbalances and don’t account for complicated methods.
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Between $102k and $105k: $2.75 billion in calls (purchase) vs. $900 million in places (promote). The online consequence favors the decision devices by $1.85 billion.
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Between $105k and $107k: $3.3 billion calls vs. $650 million places, favoring calls by $2.65 billion.
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Between $107k and $110k: $3.7 billion calls vs. $350 million places. favoring calls by $3.35 billion.
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Between $110k and $114k: $4.8 billion calls vs. $120 million places, favoring calls by $4.7 billion.
Bulls can maximize their good points by driving BTC above $110,000, which may assist set a brand new all-time excessive. Nonetheless, the continued bullish momentum will depend on developments within the ongoing tariff warfare, which has been a key focus in current weeks.
This text is for basic info functions and isn’t meant to be and shouldn’t be taken as authorized or funding recommendation. The views, ideas, and opinions expressed listed below are the creator’s alone and don’t essentially replicate or signify the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.