Key Insights:
- Bitcoin’s present value stagnation above $100,000 might be as a result of long-term holders are promoting their positions to institutional traders.
- This “quiet switch of wealth” is just not essentially bearish as new consumers are absorbing the provision. A rally is incoming.
- Regardless of billions flowing into spot Bitcoin ETFs, the value isn’t hovering as a result of establishments largely use over-the-counter (OTC) desks for big purchases.
Bullish headlines have dominated the web for Bitcoin over the previous few weeks. Nonetheless, regardless of this optimistic development, the cryptocurrency stays caught simply above $100,000 and beneath $112,000.
This crab stroll has been irritating for a lot of retail traders and analysts, particularly at a time when institutional FOMO seems to be ramping up. Nonetheless, in keeping with Charles Edwards, founding father of Capriole Investments, the purpose why Bitcoin is behaving this fashion could also be a easy one.
Lengthy-time Bitcoin holders (or the “OGs”) have been offloading their positions. They’ve been dumping their property onto Wall Road’s keen palms. Right here’s a take a look at what’s been occurring and why the value has been sluggish regardless of this robust demand.
Why Bitcoin’s Value Has Flatlined Above $100,000
Charles Edwards put it bluntly: “Persons are questioning why Bitcoin has been caught at $100K so lengthy, regardless of the institutional FOMO. It’s as a result of OGs have been dumping on Wall Road for the reason that ETF launch in January 2024.”
Bitcoin’s value first broke above six figures earlier this 12 months. Nonetheless, it hasn’t performed a lot else since then.
Persons are questioning why BTC has been caught at $100K so lengthy, regardless of the institutional FOMO. Regardless of what X information would possibly recommend, it is as a result of Bitcoin OGs (long-term holders) have been dumping on Wall St for the reason that ETF Launch in January 2024, unloading their positions.
In April… pic.twitter.com/0qYOiX2vqE
— Charles Edwards (@caprioleio) June 29, 2025
As a substitute, it’s now buying and selling in a spread, largely between $102,000 and $110,000 with short-lived spikes that shortly fade.
In accordance with Edwards, this consolidation is going on due to a quiet switch of wealth. Lengthy-term holders who accrued Bitcoin early are utilizing this new wave of institutional demand as an exit alternative.
Bitcoin OGs Out, Establishments In
Whereas it could appear unusual at first, this sell-off from OG whales isn’t essentially bearish.
In accordance with blockchain knowledge, whereas older cash are shifting out of chilly wallets, a brand new class of consumers is stepping in. These consumers are largely company treasuries and institutional gamers. Consider them as firms including Bitcoin to their steadiness sheets: Not for short-term hypothesis, however for long-term technique.
In accordance with Edwards, the group of holders who’ve saved their Bitcoin for six months or longer has surged.
In simply two months, this cohort has absorbed practically all of the BTC unloaded by long-term holders over the past 18 months. “We’ve clearly entered the warmth of the Bitcoin treasury development,” Edwards stated. “Many copycats have entered the market.”
Some fascinating Wall Road traders scooping up all this Bitcoin embody Cardone Capital, ProCap (Anthony Pompliano’s enterprise agency), mineral exploration agency Panther Metals and Norwegian deep-sea mining firm Inexperienced Minerals.
This range of firms leaping into the Bitcoin market, reveals that Bitcoin is trying increasingly more enticing as a reserve asset.
What About ETFs?
The query now’s: If billions of {dollars} are flowing into Bitcoin spot ETFs, why isn’t the value going parabolic? In accordance with on-chain analyst TXMC, the reply might be in how Bitcoin itself trades.
I believe Bitcoin folks grossly underestimate how little of the provision is definitely setting the value each hour, versus how a lot transacts away from the order books. The bitcoin market is a bunch of siloed exchanges which attempt to keep value parity by way of cross-exchange market… https://t.co/vPsxDEbpLo pic.twitter.com/WBNEfR9RCv
— 𝐓𝐗𝐌𝐂 (@TXMCtrades) June 29, 2025
ETFs and establishments are inclined to accumulate BTC by way of over-the-counter (OTC) desks somewhat than inserting massive market orders on public exchanges. These OTC purchases don’t instantly have an effect on value motion as a result of they keep away from triggering demand stress on order books.
“Most individuals underestimate how little of Bitcoin’s provide really units the value each hour,” TXMC stated.
Bitcoin’s value is generally decided by exercise on centralized exchanges, the place solely a small fraction of the provision is actively traded at any given time. In essence, whereas ETF managers could be swallowing up enormous quantities of BTC, their exercise isn’t driving the value positive aspects that retail traders hope to see. Not less than not but.
Will the ‘Flywheel’ Kick In?
Regardless of the stagnation, Edwards continues to be optimistic. He believes that the rising variety of company Bitcoin holders is making a flywheel impact.
Put merely, as extra firms add BTC to their treasuries, others will really feel pressured to comply with. This might create regular and long-term demand that ultimately overwhelms promoting stress.
“If the 6M+ holders can proceed their relentless shopping for, we’re arrange for a breakout,” Edwards stated.
As Edwards put it, “The flywheel nonetheless has an extended solution to go.” However when it positive aspects full pace, the subsequent part of Bitcoin’s bull run could also be in contrast to something we’ve seen earlier than.