Key Takeaways
Liquidity collapse and ETF instability have weakened Bitcoin’s structural assist and worth momentum. Taker promote dominance and liquidation clusters close to $117K add draw back strain.
Bitcoin’s [BTC] structural momentum remained fragile because the market struggled to get well from July’s liquidity collapse and ETF instability.
Though Bitcoin was buying and selling round $114.5K, sell-side liquidity has drastically shrunk whereas ETF demand stays risky and unreliable.
Fairly than stabilizing the market, institutional flows have been inconsistent—producing sharp inflows adopted by withdrawals.
This erratic demand did not assist Bitcoin throughout vital breakdowns, exposing it to heightened worth sensitivity.
Consequently, the market has entered a “skinny” part the place even modest promote strain triggers steep corrections, casting doubt on a near-term bullish breakout.
Supply: CryptoQuant
Bitcoin: Damaging netflows level to…
In keeping with on-chain trade information, Bitcoin continued to expertise internet outflows, signaling decreased promote strain.
On the 4th of August, over $3.67 million in BTC left exchanges, reflecting cautious optimism from long-term holders.
Nevertheless, this outflow was modest in comparison with prior months when every day withdrawals usually exceeded tons of of tens of millions.
Subsequently, whereas constant outflows recommend traders are holding quite than promoting, the decreased scale of those actions weakens their affect on worth momentum.
Bitcoin wants renewed influx energy—both via accumulation or spot shopping for—to transform this development into significant upside.
Supply: CoinGlass
What’s behind Bitcoin’s bearish bias?
The Futures market revealed rising bearish strain as taker promote quantity continued to dominate.
The 90-day CVD (Cumulative Quantity Delta) highlighted that market individuals had been more and more executing promote orders quite than shopping for dips.
This development displays rising short-term pessimism, particularly as worth checks key technical ranges with out sustained bullish conviction.
In environments the place liquidity is skinny and ETF flows are unreliable, dominant taker promote exercise turns into extra influential.
Subsequently, the persistence of this development implies that speculative sentiment stays skewed towards draw back positioning.
Supply: CryptoQuant
Can Bitcoin defend its trendline?
Bitcoin’s worth motion has bounced off the ascending trendline assist round $113K, briefly halting the latest decline.
It now faces an overhead resistance cluster between $117K and $122K, which coincides with the higher Bollinger Band and a beforehand rejected worth zone.
Though the RSI sat at a impartial 55 at press time, suggesting room for motion in both path, the present rally lacked quantity and conviction.
For Bitcoin to reclaim momentum, it should flip $117K into assist with robust every day closes and elevated spot shopping for. In any other case, the bounce dangers turning into one other decrease excessive.
Supply: TradingView
The $115K–$117K liquidation clusters
At press time, the 24-hour Binance BTC/USDT liquidation heatmap confirmed heavy liquidation density between $115K and $117K—exactly the place Bitcoin was buying and selling.
These zones usually act as magnets for worth motion however also can suppress upward motion when liquidation threat mounts.
In distinction, the decrease bands of the heatmap present far fewer liquidations, implying restricted cushion in case of a breakdown.
Subsequently, Bitcoin faces a decent squeeze between rising sell-side strain and restricted draw back safety, making the subsequent transfer extremely reactive to leverage dynamics.
Supply: CoinGlass
In abstract, Bitcoin’s worth momentum stays beneath strain as weak liquidity, inconsistent ETF flows, and dominant Futures promoting form a fragile panorama.
To reclaim bullish energy, the market should overcome dense liquidation zones and reclaim $117K with conviction. Till then, upward continuation will doubtless face stiff resistance.