A broadly adopted technical indicator for Bitcoin, the Bollinger Bands, has reached its most excessive month-to-month tightness because the asset’s inception in 2009, signaling a possible for important volatility.
Excessive compression noticed
Dealer Matthew Hyland highlighted that the Bollinger Bands are at their narrowest on the month-to-month chart, a phenomenon echoed by analyst Crypto Caesar, who acknowledged:
“The Bitcoin Bollinger Bands on the 1M (month-to-month) are at historic tightness. This has beforehand led to heavy volatility to the upside. Bitcoin might be in for a spicy This autumn.”
Historic episodes of such compression in 2012, 2016, and 2020 had been adopted by sharp upward worth strikes, as famous by investor Giannis Andreou, who warned of “enormous volatility forward.”
Cup-and-handle sample factors to $300K
Technical analysts are additionally watching a big cup-and-handle formation on the month-to-month chart, with the breakout neckline at $69,000 cleared in November 2024.
This classical chart sample tasks a worth goal of roughly $305,000 for Bitcoin within the 2025–2026 interval, representing over 170% upside from present ranges. H
owever, research recommend solely about 61% of such patterns attain their full goal.
Institutional demand and ETF flows
Persistent demand from spot Bitcoin ETFs and public treasury corporations is supporting bullish sentiment.
Current inflows have accelerated, as famous by analytics agency Santiment:
“Cash is transferring again into Bitcoin ETFs at a fast fee as retailers impatiently drop out of bitcoin. Earlier bitcoin rallies had been boosted by influx spikes like this.”