The primary half of July was sturdy for crypto, with $BTC reaching a brand new ATH above $123k. However shortly after the Fan Token Index was first launched within the July 27, 2025 article as a method to acquire broad publicity to the SportFi narrative, momentum stalled. Regardless of one other try at new highs in August, $BTC retraced by greater than 10%. Given the excessive correlation and larger volatility of most crypto belongings relative to $BTC, this era served as a significant stress check for the Fan Token Index. What follows is a evaluate of its efficiency since launch.
Supply: TradingView
The Fan Token Index was structured with a 50% allocation to $CHZ, serving because the core proxy for the ecosystem. The remaining 50% was equally divided amongst chosen soccer membership Fan Tokens that met outlined standards, akin to: golf equipment with standout current seasons, main trophies, or participation in upcoming foremost occasions just like the 2026 World Cup or the Champions League. These embody $ARG, $PSG, $BAR, $NAP, $GAL, and $JUV.
As anticipated, the index displayed vital volatility, fluctuating between 95 and 114 earlier than closing just under breakeven at 99.37 (-0.63%) as of September 4.
Supply: TradingView (value information), creator’s evaluation (portfolio building). From July 27 to September 4, 2025.
Within the earlier article, we famous that some would possibly argue Fan Tokens can not compete with the explosive beneficial properties of different tokens, like memecoins. For example, we highlighted $USELESS, which had reached a $377 million market cap inside just some months of launch. But, as anticipated, that rally proved unsustainable: $USELESS has since fallen greater than 55% as consideration light.
This illustrates the core distinction, memecoins typically behave like lottery tickets, reliant on fleeting hype, whereas Fan Tokens are tied to real-world occasions and narratives. Even when their short-term efficiency is much less excessive, their drivers are simpler to anticipate and consider over time.
Supply: Dexscreener
Whereas the long run is unsure, it’s affordable to ask whether or not consideration towards this theme will proceed to construct within the months forward, and if that’s the case, whether or not token costs may commerce considerably increased. As Stanley Druckenmiller’s first mentor put it: “By no means, ever put money into the current… You need to visualize the state of affairs 18 months from now, and no matter that’s, that’s the place the worth will probably be, not the place it’s in the present day.”
With that perspective in thoughts, we are able to assess the index’s efficiency not in isolation, however relative to benchmarks. In contrast with $BTC and the person Fan Tokens that compose it, the index held up nicely. As proven under, the index (black line) outperformed $BTC (orange line) over the whole interval, ending with a 5.11% relative acquire.
Supply: TradingView (value information), creator’s evaluation (portfolio building). As of September 4, 2025.
In opposition to its personal constituents, it outperformed 2 of the 7 tokens whereas sustaining decrease volatility at 10.9%. Solely two tokens ended the interval in adverse territory: $CHZ (-8%) and $GALFT (-10.2%). The biggest drag got here from $CHZ, which at a 50% weight had the best influence on outcomes.
Supply: TradingView (value information), creator’s evaluation (portfolio building). As of September 4, 2025.
Not like membership Fan Tokens, $CHZ is tied to the general ecosystem slightly than to a selected workforce, which makes it much less conscious of match outcomes or football-related developments and extra influenced by basic market circumstances. Nonetheless, it stays a deliberate inclusion within the index, serving as a extra steady anchor whereas nonetheless offering publicity to the broader SportFi ecosystem.
That mentioned, buyers with the next danger urge for food may select to exclude $CHZ and focus solely on the membership Fan Tokens. Over the identical interval, this model of the index would have carried out significantly higher (closing at +6.84%, or 12.54% above $BTC) with annualized volatility of 13.9%, solely modestly increased than the $CHZ-inclusive model.
Supply: TradingView (value information), creator’s evaluation (portfolio building). As of September 4, 2025.
The important thing benefit of this method is flexibility: it provides publicity to the SportFi narrative with no need to choose a single token upfront, whereas permitting allocations to evolve as circumstances change each on and off the pitch.
In keeping with Druckenmiller’s mentor’s recommendation to concentrate on the place markets could also be heading slightly than on the current, it’s helpful to revisit why every token was included within the index. This enables us to reassess over time whether or not these drivers stay legitimate and make changes if wanted.
Within the July article, we highlighted the 2026 World Cup as one of many foremost catalysts for the SportFi narrative. Over the previous 30 days, curiosity within the event has already began to construct considerably.
Supply: Google Tendencies – Search time period: World Cup, final 30 days as of September 5, 2025.
Inside that pattern, Argentina stands out as probably the most engaged area, which is likely one of the key causes $ARG was included within the index.
Supply: Google Tendencies – Search time period: World Cup, final 30 days as of September 5, 2025
It gained’t be a coincidence if for the reason that finish of July, $ARG has been the perfect performer, rising greater than 20%.
Supply: TradingView.
Its attraction lies in a novel mixture of things: Argentina are the final World Cup champions, prediction markets rank them among the many high 5 contenders for 2026, and the token is successfully tied to one of the passionate soccer fan bases.
At present odds of roughly 10%, $ARG advantages from a component of uncertainty and shock, circumstances that usually drive value motion greater than outcomes which are already extensively anticipated.
Supply: Polymarket
Transferring on to nationwide soccer golf equipment, we chosen tokens from groups positioned to compete for his or her home leagues or the Champions League.
In Serie A, Napoli and Juventus have each began strongly, sitting first and second with equal factors.
Supply: Diretta.it
Extra importantly, prediction markets presently rank them among the many high three contenders for the league title, with Napoli at 38% and Juventus at 15%. Whereas these odds are comparatively excessive, they fall wanting certainty, leaving room for shifts in expectations and potential value reactions of $NAP and $JUV because the season unfolds. As well as, each golf equipment are competing within the Champions League, the place their odds of profitable are decrease than some rivals, however the potential for sudden outcomes stays.
Supply: Polymarket
Concerning Barcelona, PSG, and Galatasaray, their home leagues are much less related for our functions. Every already holds sturdy profitable odds (Galatasaray, for instance, has claimed three consecutive titles and is aiming for a fourth) so there may be restricted “shock impact” left to seize. As a substitute, their inclusion within the index is pushed by publicity to the Champions League, a serious competitors that constantly attracts international consideration and will considerably enhance demand for his or her Fan Tokens.
Inside this group, $BAR and $PSG stand out as high contenders, with prediction markets giving them 16% and 12% possibilities, respectively, of profitable the event.
Supply: Polymarket
Against this, $GAL represents the riskiest part of the index, a view bolstered by its -10.2% efficiency over the previous month. Whereas one other home league win is nearly assured, its possibilities of lifting the Champions League trophy are under 1%.
Nonetheless, this very uncertainty creates optionality: any sudden progress within the event may set off a pointy repricing, significantly given Turkey’s standing as one of the energetic markets for Fan Tokens, with the most important variety of golf equipment represented.
Supply: RocketFan
Trying forward, it will likely be necessary to re-evaluate $GAL, and the opposite constituents, within the coming months to find out whether or not changes to the index are wanted.
The primary month of the Fan Token Index has proven each the alternatives and challenges of capturing the SportFi narrative. Whereas general efficiency remained round breakeven, the index nonetheless managed to outperform $BTC. The outcomes additionally verify the significance of allocation decisions, as $CHZ acted as a stabilizer however weighed on returns, whereas the membership Fan Tokens provided stronger upside potential.
Trying forward, the true power of this framework lies in its adaptability. By monitoring narratives tied to real-world occasions such because the World Cup and the Champions League, the index permits buyers to remain uncovered to themes with clear catalysts whereas retaining flexibility to regulate constituents as circumstances evolve.
FanTokens | Hyperlink
FIFA World Cup | Hyperlink
Stanley Druckenmiller’s Misplaced Tree Membership Lecture. Substack | Hyperlink
A Fan Token Index for World Cup 2026 and Past. BeInCrypto | Hyperlink