JPMorgan analysts have raised their year-end bitcoin worth goal to $165,000, pointing to the cryptocurrency’s present undervaluation relative to gold and powerful inflows from retail traders.
Bitcoin’s valuation versus gold
In keeping with a latest report led by JPMorgan managing director Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, bitcoin’s volatility-adjusted worth has shifted dramatically.
On the finish of 2024, bitcoin was thought of $36,000 overvalued in comparison with gold; now, it’s about $46,000 undervalued.
With the bitcoin-to-gold volatility ratio falling beneath 2.0, bitcoin now consumes solely about 1.85 instances extra threat capital than gold.
Based mostly on these metrics, JPMorgan estimates bitcoin’s market cap would wish to extend by 42% to align with the worth of the non-public gold funding market, implying a theoretical worth of $165,000.
The report said:
“This mechanical train thus might suggest important upside for bitcoin.”
Retail traders drive the ‘debasement commerce’
JPMorgan attributes a lot of bitcoin’s latest momentum to the so-called “debasement commerce”—a surge in demand for various shops of worth amid issues about authorities deficits, inflation, and weakening fiat currencies.
Retail traders have led the cost, with heavy flows into bitcoin and gold ETFs since late 2024.
Bitcoin ETF inflows surged in early 2025 earlier than cooling in August, whereas gold ETF flows have not too long ago narrowed the hole between the 2 property.
Institutional vs retail dynamics
Whereas institutional exercise has elevated through CME futures, JPMorgan notes these positions lag ETF flows, suggesting retail participation is driving the pattern.
The analysts additionally highlighted that as gold costs have surged, bitcoin has develop into extra enticing on a relative foundation.
Bullish forecasts widen
JPMorgan’s outlook aligns with a broader wave of bullish forecasts for bitcoin, with some analysts predicting costs as excessive as $200,000 by year-end.
As of now, bitcoin trades round $119,000, based on market information.