Many traders are at the moment viewing bitcoin by an end-of-cycle lens, suggesting that This autumn may mark the shut of the present market cycle. Nonetheless, two key metrics level to the likelihood that the bull market may very well be in its early phases.
Glassnode information reveals that the 200-week transferring common (200WMA), which smooths bitcoin’s value over a long-term horizon and has traditionally solely trended upwards, has simply breached $53,000.
In the meantime, the realized value, the typical value at which all bitcoin in circulation final moved onchain, has simply risen above the 200-WMA at $54,000.
Wanting again at earlier cycles, we see a constant sample. In bull markets, the realized value tends to remain above the 200-WMA, whereas in bear markets, the other happens.
For instance, within the 2017 and 2021 bull markets, the realized value steadily climbed increased and widened its hole above the 200-WMA, earlier than finally collapsing beneath it and signaling the beginning of the bear markets.
Whereas, in the course of the downturn of 2022, the realized value fell beneath the 200-WMA, it has solely lately moved above it. Traditionally, as soon as the realized value stays above this long-term transferring common, bitcoin has tended to push increased because the bull market progresses.