K33 Analysis has launched a brand new report claiming that bitcoin’s long-standing four-year halving cycle is now out of date, changed by a market pushed by institutional adoption, sovereign participation, and macroeconomic coverage adjustments.
Shift in market dynamics
In its October 2025 outlook, K33 argued that the traditional cycle—as soon as a dependable market clock—not dictates bitcoin’s trajectory.
As a substitute, structural forces corresponding to report ETF inflows, authorities coverage, and rising institutional participation are taking middle stage.
This shift was highlighted as bitcoin reached new all-time highs in each U.S. {dollars} and euros.
K33’s Head of Analysis, Vetle Lunde, wrote within the report:
“The 4-year cycle is lifeless, lengthy dwell the king. This time is certainly completely different and bitcoin has entered a essentially new regime the place structural forces, not retail mania, dictate its trajectory.”
Overheated, however not unstable
Whereas K33 acknowledged a surge in bitcoin ETF and derivatives publicity—greater than 63,000 BTC ($7.75 billion) in a single week, the biggest 2025 accumulation to date—the agency doesn’t view this as an indication of an imminent crash.
Open curiosity on CME futures elevated by almost 15,000 BTC, and U.S. ETFs absorbed over 31,600 BTC in simply seven days.
Regardless of these indicators of market exuberance, K33 expects solely short-term consolidation quite than a significant reversal.
The report contrasts the present rally with previous peaks, emphasizing the distinction between at present’s institutional actuality and the retail-driven euphoria of 2017 and 2021.
No October cycle peak?
Lunde dismissed the concept bitcoin is about for a cyclical peak in October, regardless of historic fractal evaluation pointing to an identical timeline as earlier bull runs.
K33 makes use of a six-part danger framework—together with RSI, funding charges, and bitcoin dominance—and finds solely a few purple flags at current, conserving the market outdoors of historic “hazard zones.”
Lunde concluded that nothing signifies a repeat of the normal four-year cycle and that bitcoin’s present worth motion stays wholesome.