JPMorgan attributes the current Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) sell-off to crypto-native leverage quite than institutional exits, noting that spot ETFs and CME futures absorbed minimal pressured promoting whereas perpetual futures markets confronted sharp deleveraging throughout each property.
Bitcoin fell 13.1% from $122,316 on Oct. 3 to $106,329 by Oct. 17, whereas perpetual open curiosity dropped from roughly $70 billion to $58 billion on Oct. 10. This $12 billion decline indicators pressured liquidations quite than orderly place exits.
Farside Buyers’ information reveals that Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded $70.4 million in web outflows targeting Oct. 14, 15, and 16, minimal in comparison with the size of the worth transfer and the leverage flush in derivatives markets.
Ethereum noticed much more extreme deleveraging relative to its market measurement. Perpetual open curiosity fell from roughly $28 billion to between $19 billion and $20 billion on Oct. 10, representing a $9 billion to $10 billion drop.
Ethereum spot ETFs recorded $668.9 million in web outflows throughout Oct. 9, 10, 13, and 16, practically 9.5 occasions Bitcoin ETF outflows, with concentrated redemptions on Oct. 10 and Oct. 13.
Regardless of the bigger institutional response in Ethereum ETFs, JPMorgan concluded that perpetual futures deleveraging drove worth motion in each property, with ETF flows displaying “little pressured promoting” relative to the derivatives cascade.
The info assist the financial institution’s thesis. Ethereum’s open curiosity declined by roughly 35%, whereas Bitcoin’s fell by roughly 17%. Nevertheless, each property skilled a coordinated sell-off on Oct. 10 as leverage unwound throughout crypto-native venues.
| Metric | Window (UTC) | BTC | ETH | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US spot ETF web flows (US$m) | Oct 3–16, 2025 | +3,406.9 | +745.9 | Sum of Farside each day “Complete” for every date; Oct. 17 reveals no entry. |
| CME futures OI variation | Oct 9 → Oct 10, 2025 | ~flat to low-single-digit dip | down; heavier than BTC | Protection signifies CME BTC OI stayed broadly steady in the course of the flush, whereas ETH noticed extra unwinding; precise each day CME OI deltas aren’t printed. |
| Mixture perp OI change (notional) | Oct 10–11, 2025 (24–48h) | ≈ −40% | ≈ −40% | Market-wide deleveraging throughout perpetuals per Kaiko/JPMorgan; aligns with contemporaneous reporting. |
Perpetual flush mechanics
Perpetual futures exaggerate strikes as a result of leverage forces trades. When costs break, margin ratios slip, and exchanges liquidate under-margined positions with market orders that hit skinny books and set off reflexive cascades.
Cross-margin amplifies the dynamic, as collateral marked to market shrinks because the asset falls, forcing accounts that appeared secure to breach upkeep thresholds and add extra pressured movement.
Funding charges supply the quickest inform. Throughout a down flush, perpetuals sometimes flip to sustained detrimental charges with the perpetual buying and selling at a reduction to the spot index.
The flip arrives when funding grinds again towards zero whereas the perpetual premium or low cost closes, ideally with worth stabilizing on rising spot quantity quite than perpetual exercise alone.
Open curiosity gives the second pillar. A pointy drop in combination open curiosity alongside the sell-off means leverage left the system as an alternative of rotating to new shorts.
Bitcoin’s 17% decline and Ethereum’s 35% decline in open curiosity each level to real deleveraging.
A constructive rebuild is sluggish and spot-led. Costs get well or stay on the base stage whereas open curiosity rises modestly, funding stays close to flat, and the perpetual foundation stays tight.
A sturdy backside after a perpetual flush appears to be like like detrimental funding reverting towards zero, the perpetual low cost closing, open curiosity resetting and rebuilding step by step, and the futures curve lifting again into gentle contango.
On the time of press 1:06 pm UTC on Oct. 18, 2025, Bitcoin is ranked #1 by market cap and the worth is up 1.27% over the previous 24 hours. Bitcoin has a market capitalization of $2.14 trillion with a 24-hour buying and selling quantity of $65.62 billion. Be taught extra about Bitcoin ›
On the time of press 1:06 pm UTC on Oct. 18, 2025, the entire crypto market is valued at at $3.64 trillion with a 24-hour quantity of $168.94 billion. Bitcoin dominance is at present at 58.74%. Be taught extra in regards to the crypto market ›