Bitcoin’s “four-year regulation” could also be breaking for the primary time. Regardless of report inflows into spot ETFs and swelling company treasuries, the market is not transferring in lockstep with the halving cycle.
As a substitute, liquidity shocks, sovereign wealth allocations, and derivatives development are rising as the brand new anchors of worth discovery. This shift raises a vital query for 2026: can establishments nonetheless depend on cycle playbooks, or should they rewrite the principles solely?
Has the cycle lastly snapped?
With these forces now setting the tempo, the query will not be whether or not the previous cycle nonetheless issues however whether or not it has already been changed. BeInCrypto spoke with James Verify, Co-Founder and on-chain analyst at Checkonchain Analytics and former Lead On-Chain Analyst at Glassnode, to check this thesis.
For years, Bitcoin traders handled the four-year halving cycle as gospel. That rhythm now faces its hardest check. In September 2025, CoinShares tracked $1.9 billion in ETF inflows—practically half of it into Bitcoin—whereas Glassnode flagged $108,000–$114,000 as a make-or-break zone. On the identical time, CryptoQuant recorded alternate inflows collapsing to historic lows, whilst Bitcoin pushed into recent all-time highs.
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ETF inflows: recent demand or reshuffling?
September’s ETF inflows highlighted strong demand, however traders must know whether or not that is genuinely new capital or just current holders rotating from automobiles like GBTC. That distinction impacts how a lot structural assist the rally has.
“There’s completely going to be some holders who’re migrating from holding on-chain into the ETFs. That is positively taking place. Nonetheless, it’s not the bulk… the demand has truly been unbelievable and large. We’re speaking about tens of billions of {dollars}, actually severe capital approaching board. The distinction is that now we have a variety of promote facet.”
James famous that ETFs have already absorbed round $60 billion in whole inflows. Market information reveals this determine is overshadowed by month-to-month realized profit-taking of $30–100 billion from long-term holders, underscoring why costs haven’t climbed as rapidly as ETF demand alone may counsel.
Change flows: sign or noise?
CryptoQuant reveals that alternate inflows reached report lows at Bitcoin’s 2025 highs. At face worth, this might imply structural shortage. Nonetheless, James cautioned in opposition to over-reliance on these metrics.
“You received’t see me truly use alternate information fairly often as a result of I believe it’s simply not a extremely great tool. The exchanges have I believe it’s like 3.4 million bitcoin. Plenty of these information suppliers merely don’t have all of the pockets addresses as a result of it’s a extremely, actually arduous job to search out all of them.”
Evaluation confirms this limitation, noting that long-term holder provide—at the moment 15.68 million BTC, or about 78.5% of circulating provide, and all in revenue—is a extra dependable gauge of shortage than alternate balances.
Do miners nonetheless transfer the market?
For years, mining was shorthand for draw back threat. But with ETF and treasury flows now dominating, their affect could also be much more negligible than many assume.
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“For the Bitcoin community, that promote facet I discussed earlier than, I’ve acquired some charts… you simply acquired to maintain zooming in to see it as a result of it seems just like the zero line. It’s so small in comparison with previous hand promoting, ETF flows. So I’d say that the halving doesn’t matter. And it hasn’t mattered, I’d say for a few cycles. That’s a type of narratives that I believe is lifeless.”
The roughly 450 BTC issued every day by miners is negligible in contrast with the revived provide from long-term holders, which may attain 10,000–40,000 BTC per day in peak rallies. This imbalance illustrates why miner flows not outline market construction.
From cycles to liquidity regimes
Requested whether or not Bitcoin nonetheless respects its four-year cycle or has shifted right into a liquidity-driven regime, James pointed to structural pivots in adoption.
“There’s been two main pivot factors on the planet of Bitcoin. The primary one was the 2017 all-time excessive… The top of 2022 or the beginning of 23, that’s the place Bitcoin turned a way more mature asset. These days, Bitcoin responds to the world, quite than the world reply to Bitcoin.”
Evaluation helps this view, noting that volatility compression and the rise of ETFs and derivatives have shifted Bitcoin right into a extra index-like function in international markets. It additionally burdened that liquidity situations, not halving cycles, now set the tempo.
Realized Worth and new bear-market flooring
Historically, the realized worth acted as a dependable cycle diagnostic. Constancy’s fashions counsel post-halving corrections happen 12–18 months after the occasion. James, nevertheless, argued that the metric is now outdated—and that traders ought to watch the place the marginal value bases cluster as a substitute.
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“Usually a bear market ends when the worth comes all the way down to the realized worth. Now, I believe the realized worth is someplace round 52,000. However I truly suppose that metric is outdated as a result of it consists of Satoshi and misplaced cash… I don’t suppose Bitcoin goes again all the way down to 30K. If we might have a bear market proper now, I believe we might go all the way down to one thing like 80,000. That to me is the place bear market flooring would begin to kind. 75–80K, one thing like that.”
Their information present a clustering of value bases round $74,000–$80,000—masking ETFs, company treasuries, and precise market averages—indicating that this vary now anchors potential bear-market flooring.
MVRV and the boundaries of metrics
In contrast, MVRV Z-Rating has not damaged, however its thresholds have drifted with market depth and instrument combine. James suggested flexibility.
“I believe all of the metrics are nonetheless dependable, however the previous thresholds usually are not dependable. Individuals want to consider the metrics as a supply of knowledge, not as an indicator that’s going to inform you the reply. It’s straightforward to identify a blow-off prime when all metrics are via the roof. What’s actually arduous to identify is when the bull market simply runs out of steam and rolls over.”
Their information reveals MVRV cooling close to +1σ after which plateauing, quite than reaching historic extremes—reinforcing James’s view that context beats mounted cut-offs.
Sovereign flows and custody threat
As sovereign wealth funds and pensions take into account publicity, focus threat has change into a key concern. James acknowledged that Coinbase holds a lot of the Bitcoin, however argued that proof-of-work offsets systemic threat.
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“If there’s one space that’s in all probability the most important focus threat, it might be Coinbase, just because they custody just about the entire Bitcoin from the ETFs. However as a result of Bitcoin makes use of proof of labor, it doesn’t truly matter the place the cash are… There’s no threshold of threat that breaks the system. The market simply types itself out.”
Knowledge confirms that Coinbase serves as custodian for many US spot ETFs, illustrating the diploma of focus and why James frames it as a market quite than a safety threat.
Choices, ETFs, and U.S. dominance
James pointed to derivatives because the decisive consider Vanguard’s potential entry into ETF and tokenized markets.
“Crucial factor is definitely acquired nothing to do with the ETFs themselves. It’s truly the choices market being constructed on prime of them… As of October 2024, IBIT began tearing forward of all of the others. It’s now the one one seeing considerable inflows. The US has like 90% dominance when it comes to ETF holdings.”
Market evaluation reveals BlackRock’s IBIT capturing most of AUM share after launching choices in late 2024, with US ETFs commanding practically 90% of world flows—underscoring derivatives because the precise driver of market dynamics. IBIT dominance aligns with stories of US ETFs shaping nearly all new inflows, reinforcing the nation’s outsized function.
Closing ideas
“All people is all the time in search of the proper metric to foretell the longer term. There isn’t a such factor. The one factor you may management is your selections. If it goes all the way down to 75, ensure you have a plan for that. If it goes as much as 150, ensure you have a plan for that as effectively.”
James argued that making ready methods for draw back and upside eventualities is essentially the most sensible approach to navigate volatility via 2026 and past.
His evaluation means that Bitcoin’s four-year halving cycle could not outline its trajectory. ETF inflows and sovereign-scale capital have launched new structural drivers, whereas long-term holder conduct stays the important thing constraint.
Metrics like Realized Worth and MVRV require reinterpretation, with $75,000–$80,000 rising because the doubtless ground in a contemporary bear market. For establishments, the main focus in 2026 ought to shift towards liquidity regimes, custody dynamics, and the derivatives markets now forming on prime of ETFs.