Briefly
- Prediction market customers are reflecting market uncertainty with swaying predictions on crypto value actions.
- Bears have taken management available in the market that asks for Bitcoin’s subsequent cease—$100,000 or $120,000.
- Customers on Myriad suppose BNB’s market cap will outrank XRP subsequent week.
Uncertainty within the crypto market has led to a tighter value vary for prime crypto property like Bitcoin and Ethereum during the last week.
However odds on prediction markets have been way more risky, as predictors slide from bullish to bearish alongside the broader market.
High-moving markets this week embrace predictions on Bitcoin’s subsequent cease, the battle between BNB and XRP, and the expansion of the stablecoin market cap.
(Disclaimer: Myriad Markets is a product of Decrypt’s guardian firm, Dastan.)
Bitcoin’s subsequent transfer: $120K or $100K?
Market Open: October 12
Market Shut: Open to decision
Quantity: $766K
Hyperlink: See the newest odds on the “Bitcoin’s subsequent hit: $120K or dip to $100K” market on Myriad
Bitcoin is caught in a spread, providing transient spurts up adopted by slides again down. BTC was lately buying and selling at $107,659, falling round 3.5% within the final 24 hours and now down 2% on the week.
That’s led predictors on Myriad to as soon as extra flip bearish, bringing odds of Bitcoin’s subsequent cease being $120,000 all the way down to 43% on the time of writing. Earlier this week although, the bullish facet had as soon as extra climbed to round 75% in favor of $120,000.
Bitcoin and the broader market tumbled on the again of uncertainty from Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s feedback relating to a December charge minimize.
The highest crypto asset by market cap now sits round 12% from the $120,000 mark and almost 15% from its August all-time excessive, based on knowledge from CoinGecko. Whereas it has been in a position to maintain agency above $100,000 for the reason that largest crypto liquidation of all time worn out $19 billion value of positions earlier this month (throughout all cash), its present vary dangers additional contracts based on a current Glassnode report.
But, some analysts see near-term catalysts, significantly because the shine has worn off gold a bit within the final week, opening room for Bitcoin to develop because the debasement commerce stays on.
What’s Subsequent? A commerce take care of China could also be resolved quickly, however uncertainty a couple of December charge minimize nonetheless stands, probably placing a tamper on extreme strikes in both path.
Will this be the longest authorities shutdown in U.S. historical past?
Market Open: October 15
Market Shut: November 5
Quantity: $28.9K
Hyperlink: See the newest odds on the “Will this be the longest authorities shutdown in US historical past?” market on Myriad
The U.S. authorities shut down has reached 30 days, making it the second-longest shutdown in U.S. historical past.
Predictors on Myriad now overwhelmingly imagine this one will surpass the 35-day shutdown from President Donald Trump’s first time period, now giving 83% odds of “sure” within the Myriad market which asks if it is going to be the longest.
The market has been trending that approach within the final 10 days, leaping from the mark of 47.5% in favor of “sure” on October 20.
A decision might come all the way down to the wire as Senators didn’t discover a decision on Thursday, and are actually not slated to reconvene till Monday afternoon, based on a report from CBS Information.
Once they come again collectively, they’re going to have simply a few days to discover a compromise and finish the shutdown earlier than it turns into the longest of all time.
President Trump is again in america after his travels to Asia—can he assist push issues alongside within the coming days? Predictors do not suppose so.
What’s Subsequent? The Senate is adjourned till 3pm ET on Monday.
BNB vs. XRP: Which is able to rank larger on November 2?
Market Open: October 28
Market Shut: November 1
Quantity: $43.8K
Hyperlink: See the newest odds on the “Which is able to rank larger on November 2?” market on Myriad
Main altcoins BNB and XRP each hit new all-time highs in 2025, nestling themselves inside the highest 5 of crypto property by market cap within the course of.
Now, a brand new Myriad market on BNB Chain asks customers which of the 2 market caps will rank larger on November 2.
Because it stands on Thursday afternoon, their market caps are separated by lower than $2 billion, or a couple of 1% transfer for every token, each of which commerce simply shy of $150 billion market caps on the time of writing.
The pair are each trending down within the final 24 hours, however BNB has remained stronger, dropping solely 3.9% whereas the Ripple-linked XRP has dropped 7.8%.
That has led to a fast flip within the Myriad market, greater than doubling odds of BNB’s market cap being larger on November 2 within the final 24 hours. Because it stands, predictors now give BNB a 57% probability of holding the crown, in comparison with 23.2% on Wednesday night.
The broader crypto market has tumbled after Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated a December charge minimize is “not a forgone conclusion,” including a layer of uncertainty to market sentiment and placing an additional damper on anticipated “Uptober” vibes because the month winds down.
If the market continues to tumble, will the XRP Military be robust sufficient to mount a comeback?
What’s Subsequent? Predictions for this market shut on November 1.
Stablecoin market cap to cross $360 billion earlier than February?
Market Open: October 2
Market Shut: January 29
Quantity: $15.8K
Hyperlink: See the newest odds on the “Stablecoin market cap above $360 billion by February” market on Myriad
Stablecoins have been one of many main storylines this 12 months, highlighted by the passing of the GENIUS Act, which regulates their issuance and buying and selling in america.
The concentrate on fiat-pegged currencies has helped propel progress of greater than $100 billion in whole market cap for the reason that 12 months started, from round $205 billion on January 1 to $307 billion as of Thursday, based on knowledge from DefiLlama.
Predictors on Myriad are actually requested to foretell whether or not or not the full market cap can cross $360 billion by February.
Earlier this month, predictors have been fairly assured, making odds of “sure” round 80% on October 10. However with slowing stablecoin progress in the previous couple of weeks, odds have shrunk, now sitting at simply 53% to surpass $360 billion earlier than February.
The whole stablecoin market cap has dropped barely within the final week, dipping round 0.15% or $478 million—led by outflows within the third largest stablecoin by market cap, Ethena’s USDe.
However longer-term predictions see main progress within the sector. Earlier this month, analysts at Normal Chartered indicated that stablecoins might pull round $1 trillion from financial institution deposits in rising markets within the coming years.
Plus, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated again in June that a $2 trillion market cap is cheap for the asset class.
The full market cap might want to bounce round 17% within the subsequent three months to achieve the $360 billion mark earlier than February. That will simply barely outpace the final three months’ value of progress, with the full market cap rising round 15.8% from the top of July till in the present day.
Predictors are break up on whether or not that can occur.
What’s Subsequent? Predictions will shut on January 29, a few days earlier than February begins.
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