Over the previous few weeks I’ve seen quite a lot of commentary, particularly on CT, “the cycle is over”, “alt season useless”, “bear market incoming”. In the event you hearken to retail sentiment, you’d consider the highest is in. And but, from the structural or cycle view, the bullish argument stays very a lot alive.
Listed here are three information price contemplating proper now:
- The Crypto Worry and Greed Index, which aggregates volatility, momentum, social media, dominance, and search-trends, is at present exhibiting excessive worry (27) in crypto.
- On October 10/11 2025 (relying the place you’re on this blue marble) the crypto market endured what’s being referred to as the biggest single-day spinoff, wipe-out in historical past. Over US$19 billion in liquidations, about 1.6 million merchants closed out. By no means even knew there have been that many lively merchants, appears retail are ghosting atm and bots rule all tokens.
- However regardless of this large de-leveraging occasion, analysts at Galaxy Digital (Alex Thorn) say the structural bull market stays intact, because of tailwinds comparable to AI capex, tokenisation and stable-coin progress.
So we’ve, sentiment deeply bearish (worry), an enormous shock occasion (liquidations and leverage unwound), and structural tailwinds nonetheless in place. Traditionally, when the group is overly bearish and structural momentum stays, the percentages of the subsequent leg up improve.
Why many voices are nonetheless so bearish
Why will we hear almost 8 in 10 merchants or analysts calling for a bear market? A couple of causes:
1. Affirmation bias & narrative‐searching for
We people (and our AI instruments) search for proof that reinforces our hunches, not for what challenges them.
With so many individuals positioned for a bear, their scan of charts, indicators, headlines will emphasise “danger”, “crash”, “alt-dead”. They’ll see the October 10 liquidation and say “wtf, prime is now”. However they could under-weight the information that (a) the drop was leverage-led not elementary breakdown, (b) structural flows (i.e., institutional curiosity) stay. I imply simply this week Cobie bought Echo to Coinbase for $375m and his Up Solely Podcast for $25m, hardly bear market strikes.
The irony is the very instruments meant to offer readability (on-chain analytics, social-sentiment AI, and so on) can amplify bias in the event you feed them the flawed inputs or interpret outputs by the lens of what you already consider.
2. Leverage wash-out appears to be like like a breakdown
When $19 billion + will get liquidated and the market dumps 10–70% % in hours, it looks like a crash. Many interpret “liquidation occasion” = “bear market begins”. However as analysts identified, this one was triggered by skinny liquidity + heavy leverage + macro shock (US-China commerce tensions) greater than underlying demand collapse.
Therefore many buyers extrapolate that value fall means cycle prime. However that could be a false sign.
3. The alt-season query
Some of the widespread bear-case arguments is “Okay, possibly BTC holds up, however alt season is finished for this cycle”. And lets be actual for a second, for altcoins, the ache has been sharper and liquidity thinner.
So even when BTC is structurally bullish, many really feel the broader “every thing pumps” alt-season thesis has been invalidated reinforcing bearish commentary.
Why the bull situation continues to be very compelling
Given the bearish noise, right here’s why I lean towards the thesis that we’re nonetheless inside a bull construction, that means an enormous rally / alt-season continues to be believable earlier than a full-scale bear part hits.
Tailwinds intact
- As famous, Galaxy Digital’s analysis flags AI capex, tokenisation, and stable-coin progress as structural drivers for crypto.
- Moreover, the narrative of AI + crypto is gathering weight: infrastructure, compute, decentralisation of AI fashions, and so on. Bloody Ocean and Fetch apart, the AI play continues to be on.
These aren’t “humorous cash” narratives, they map to actual technological or geopolitical themes.
Sentiment excessive = uneven upside
When the fear-greed index is in excessive worry, typical historic logic says “patrons might start to look, as a result of the group is all out of bullish conviction”. In the event you purchase when everybody else is scared, your upside is bigger. Clearly not a assure, however odds shift. Each time I’ve been by a correct alt season its been proper after I used to be crapping myself barely, as a result of I began to query my very own ideas, and at the very least thought-about, possibly Im flawed, or possibly its totally different this time.
Given sentiment is so skewed to bearish, the “if a bounce occurs” situation is much less crowded, and that’s useful for upside. I reckon that is sensible.
Liquidation occasion reset the panorama
Large leverage flushes usually clear home. The October 10 occasion purged quite a lot of short-term speculative froth, clearing the trail for the subsequent transfer. Analysts see this as “unhealthy information however not cycle-ending information”.
In different phrases, the crash might have set the stage for the subsequent leg up fairly than signaled the tip of the bull.
Cycle and construction works regardless of noise
In the event you undertake a cycle-framework, for instance in the event you take a look at the four-year rhythm of Bitcoin through halvings, you’ll observe the present build-up suggests the bull part isn’t clearly over but.
Even when many consider “alt season is useless”, the info suggests, as soon as BTC enters its subsequent main leg, alt-season might occur after a interval of consolidation and accumulation. That means a path, properly at the very least to me of accumulation, then acceleration (BTC) into, alt-rotation.
Why the “alt-season earlier than bear market” situation deserves critical consideration
Let’s stroll by one believable narrative:
Accumulation Part
After the leverage wash-out, main gamers quietly construct positions (BTC, ETH, chosen alts). Liquidity returns.
Up-leg / breakout
BTC breaks larger, maybe pushed by AI or narrative flows and institutional adoption. This triggers broader market confidence.
Alt-season rotation
As soon as the large boys (BTC/ETH) have run, capital rotates into smaller-cap altcoins searching for larger returns. Traditionally this occurs earlier than the broad bear market part. And it aint occurred but.
Cycle prime
Sentiment flips from worry to greed to euphoria, additionally hasn’t occurred but. Leverage builds, extra froth emerges, at that time the bear case turns into dominant.
Bear & reset
The large correction comes, cycle resets, we begin accumulation for subsequent time.
If we are literally someplace between phases 1–2, then alt-season may nonetheless be forward, not behind. And the truth that so many are bearish could also be a contrarian indicator in any other case generally known as the (Opposite Cramer Indicator).
The elephant within the room, What about AI instruments & affirmation bias?
We stay in a world of unprecedented entry to knowledge, AI-powered sentiment instruments, on-chain analytics, social-media streams. We would assume meaning we should always have much less bias. However the reverse usually occurs and we use the instruments to bolster what we already consider.
AI sentiment-models can course of 1000’s of tweets, Reddit threads, funding-rate shifts, whale flows, and so on. But when your immediate or body is “search for indicators of prime”, you’ll spotlight the bearish indicators.
Social media itself is topic to echo-chambers, bots, crowd psychology. AI fashions might misread hype or worry as “reality”. (Deep studying tutorial work reveals massive language fashions used for crypto sentiment nonetheless battle with bias.)
The narrative drives the filter, In the event you really feel the cycle is ending, you’ll choose the liquidation-event, the alt-failures, the tweet “market prime”. In the event you really feel the bull will proceed, you’ll emphasise tailwinds, institutional flows, and naturally cycle timing.
So the entry to AI instruments doesn’t mechanically give readability, it offers extra knowledge and extra potential to self-select.
Pragmatically, use the instruments to problem your bias, not affirm it. Ask “What proof helps the alternative of what I consider?” fairly than “Discover me causes I’m proper.”
Skeptics’ objections, and the way I see them
It wouldn’t be a balanced article with out acknowledging the bear case.
“Liquidity drying up / macro danger excessive”
True, macro danger (charges, financial institution stress, geopolitics) is actual. And if liquidity tightens, crypto suffers. However that’s legitimate for each bear and delayed bull situations. The truth that structural flows stay is the counter-weight.
“Alt season already failed”
Sure, altcoins have lagged and suffered heavier ache. However that doesn’t imply they’ll’t have a second coming. If BTC leads after which rotation occurs, we may nonetheless see a significant alt transfer.
“Cycle prime have to be close to”
Cycles do prime, ultimately. However timing them exactly is near-impossible. If we assume “prime is now” we might miss a big portion of upside earlier than inevitable decline and 4 extra years of absolute agony.
My takeaway, “odds” and positioning
If I had been to boil it down, the percentages of a significant bull run and alt-season earlier than full bear market are meaningfully larger than many consider. That doesn’t imply the market will instantly explode tomorrow. It means the risk-reward skews favour bullish upside greater than bears realise in my view.
So how may you place?
Hold conviction capital within the high-probability situation (bull tailwinds + low sentiment) however measurement fastidiously as a result of danger stays.
Use instruments (AI sentiment, on-chain flows, funding charges) to cross-check fairly than to justify your bias.
Monitor for indicators of rotation, if BTC runs strongly then alts start to wake, that might be a key set off.
Keep alert for when sentiment flips to euphoria-driven. That can mark the high-risk flip.
Keep away from considering “alt scheme is useless endlessly”. As a substitute deal with the present part as probably pre-rotation fairly than post-rotation.
TL;DR
Now we have a bizarre paradox, entry to AI and knowledge has by no means been higher, but we nonetheless see an enormous divergence of views in crypto. Why? As a result of most of us (and our instruments) are nonetheless looking for affirmation of what we really feel, not what the info might counsel. And in markets formed by psychology, liquidity and leverage, how we really feel issues lots.
At this time’s excessive worry, and the huge latest liquidation occasion and still-intact structural drivers create an uncommon set-up. The group thinks it’s over. The tailwinds counsel it could simply be gearing up.
Don’t dismiss a bull leg or alt-season simply since you anticipate a bear. The chances may be higher than you realise.