HBAR is down virtually 11% up to now week, and yesterday it lastly broke under its neckline, finishing the pinnacle and shoulders sample we projected on November 13. Regardless of the breakdown, the final 24 hours have been surprisingly flat.
And whereas the construction nonetheless factors towards decrease ranges, early indicators recommend that merchants betting on deeper draw back could also be strolling right into a bear entice as an alternative. Right here is why.
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Promoting Rises and Shorts Pile Up — However The Setup Isn’t That Easy
HBAR’s spot flows present a pointy shift in behaviour after the breakdown. On November 14, HBAR recorded –4.03 million in internet outflows, that means extra tokens have been leaving exchanges as patrons accrued.
Immediately, after the sample breakdown confirmed, flows flipped to +420,790 HBAR.
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That could be a 110% swing from detrimental to constructive netflow — a transparent signal that sellers have stepped in aggressively after the sample break.
The derivatives market reveals an excellent stronger tilt. On Bitget’s liquidation map alone, brief publicity is $16.71 million, whereas lengthy publicity is $6.09 million. This implies shorts now management 73% of all leveraged positions — about 2.7 instances greater than longs.
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This type of crowded positioning usually fuels the circumstances for a bear entice threat, the place value briefly reverses upward and forces shorts to shut their positions at a loss.
The HBAR value breakdown has occurred, sure — however this positioning makes it harmful to imagine the transfer will proceed uninterrupted.
One Transfer Might Drive HBAR Worth Rebound, Hitting Quick Liquidations
The worth chart accommodates the important thing cause a bear entice is feasible. Whereas HBAR broke under the neckline, the follow-through has been weak. On the identical time, the Relative Energy Index (RSI) — a metric that measures value momentum to indicate if an asset is oversold or overbought — is exhibiting a notable sample.
Between October 17 and November 14, the worth made a decrease low, whereas RSI fashioned a better low. It is a bullish RSI divergence, and it usually seems simply earlier than a short-term reversal try.
If the divergence performs out, the primary set off is a transfer again above $0.160, which is precisely the place the neckline sits. Reclaiming this stage places a big block of brief positions in danger.
The liquidation map reveals that shorts start getting squeezed as the worth rises above this zone.
A push above $0.180 would verify the entice is absolutely in place and pressure even deeper brief liquidations, giving HBAR room for a stronger rebound. Nevertheless, the entice solely works if patrons maintain key assist ranges.
If HBAR drops under $0.155, the divergence weakens and the downtrend regains management. In that case, the pinnacle and shoulders projection stays legitimate, opening the way in which towards the sooner bearish goal close to $0.113.