In November 2025, the Tether Dominance index (USDT.D) — the share of USDT’s market cap relative to the whole crypto market cap — formally surpassed 6%. It additionally broke above a descending trendline that had remained intact since 2022.
Analysts have expressed concern as USDT.D breaks a long-term resistance stage. The transfer typically alerts the start of a serious correction and even an prolonged bear marketplace for your complete crypto market.
How Vital Is the Rise of USDT.D within the Market Context of November?
TradingView knowledge exhibits that USDT.D reached 6.1% on November 18 earlier than pulling again to five.9%.
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Earlier within the month, this metric sat beneath 5%. The rise displays heightened warning amongst traders. Many have rotated capital into essentially the most liquid stablecoin as a substitute of deploying funds to purchase deeply discounted altcoins.
Historic knowledge point out a robust inverse correlation between USDT.D and complete market capitalization. Due to this fact, USDT.D breaking above a trendline that has held for almost 4 years might sign deeper market-wide declines forward.
A number of analysts count on USDT.D to climb towards 8% by the tip of the 12 months, implicitly suggesting {that a} bear market could also be forming in November. This projection has advantage as a result of concern continues to develop and exhibits no indicators of easing.
As well as, the well-known analyst Milk Street highlights a notable shift within the stablecoin market. DefiLlama knowledge exhibits that the whole stablecoin market cap fell from $309 billion on the finish of October to $303.5 billion in November.
The stablecoin market has shed roughly $5.5 billion in lower than a month. This marks the primary vital decline because the 2022 bear market. The DefiLlama chart reveals that, after 4 years of steady development, the curve has flattened and is beginning to flip downward.
The mix of a shrinking stablecoin market cap and a rising USDT.D suggests a broader pattern. Buyers seem not solely to be promoting altcoins into stablecoins but in addition withdrawing stablecoins from the market totally.
“Increasing provide means contemporary liquidity coming into the system. When it flattens or reverses, it alerts that the inflows powering the rally have cooled,” Milk Street mentioned.
Nonetheless, Milk Street nonetheless sees a glimmer of optimism within the present panorama. He argues that the scenario doesn’t essentially point out a disaster. As an alternative, the market is working with much less “gasoline” for the primary time in years, and such shifts typically precede worth adjustments.
Moreover, a current BeInCrypto report notes a contrasting pattern. Regardless of the declining market cap, the quantity of stablecoins held on exchanges has elevated in November. This means that some traders view the downturn as a possibility to place themselves for the tip of the 12 months.