Bitcoin (BTC) fell to $80,600 on Friday, extending weekly losses to greater than 10%. Its month-to-month drawdown has now reached 23%, the steepest decline since June 2022. The drop beneath $84,000 additionally pushed BTC to check the 100-week exponential transferring common for the primary time since October 2023, aligning precisely with the beginning of the present bull cycle.
Bitcoin futures liquidations surpassed $1 billion, underscoring the severity of this downturn, described by the Kobeissi Letter because the “quickest bear market ever.”
Key takeaways:
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Crypto market cap has erased 33% since October, marking a fast structural unwind.
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A document fund outflow and adverse ETF flows sign persistent institutional promoting strain.
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A serious macroeconomic liquidity indicator (NFCI) is trending decrease, traditionally previous BTC rallies by 4 to 6 weeks.
Crypto market cap collapses as “structural” promoting accelerates
Since Oct. 6, the entire crypto market cap has fallen to $2.8 trillion from $4.2 trillion, a 33% drawdown. The Kobeissi Letter known as it “one of many fastest-moving crypto bear markets ever,” with promoting intensifying throughout all main sectors. The publication mentioned digital asset funding merchandise are reflecting the identical stress, with crypto funds recording $2 billion in weekly outflows, the biggest since February.
This marked the third consecutive week of web promoting, leading to complete outflows of $3.2 billion over that interval. Bitcoin accounted for the majority of the withdrawals with $1.4 billion in redemptions, whereas Ether adopted with $689 million, representing a few of the greatest weekly losses both asset has seen in 2025.
Common each day outflows as a share of property underneath administration (AUM) hit all-time highs, dragging complete AUM to $191 billion, down 27% from October. Analysts labeled this as a transparent structural decline, not simply short-term panic.
US exchange-traded fund (ETF) flows worsen the strain. Spot BTC ETF flows stay beneath zero, reinforcing the sell-off. In the meantime, BlackRock’s spot ETF is on tempo for its largest weekly outflow ever, near surpassing the $1.17 billion document from February.
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A macroeconomic shift might give Bitcoin a liquidity lead
Whereas a number of analysts continued to name for a Bitcoin backside based mostly on technical charts and onchain information, Miad Kasravi took a unique method. Kasravi carried out a decade-long backtest of 105 monetary indicators, indicating that the Nationwide Monetary Situations Index (NFCI) is among the few metrics that reliably leads Bitcoin by 4 to 6 weeks throughout main macroeconomic regime shifts.
This dynamic was evident in October 2022, when easing monetary situations preceded a 94% rally, and once more in July 2024, when tightening situations signaled stress a number of weeks earlier than Bitcoin surged from $50,000 to $107,000.
For the time being, NFCI sits at -0.52 and is trending decrease. Traditionally, each 0.10 level decline within the index has aligned with roughly 15%–20% upside in Bitcoin, with a deeper transfer towards -0.60 usually marking an acceleration section. December additionally introduces a key catalyst: the Federal Reserve’s plan to rotate mortgage-backed securities into Treasury payments.
Kasravi famous that though it isn’t labeled Quantitative Easing (QE), the operation might inject liquidity in an analogous approach to the 2019 “not-QE” occasion that preceded a 40% Bitcoin rally.
If the NFCI continues to say no into mid-December, it could sign the early levels of a brand new liquidity growth window. Based mostly on the index’s constant four-to–six week lead time throughout previous regime shifts, Bitcoin’s subsequent main cyclical transfer would align with early to mid-December 2025, providing a doubtlessly important inflection level for market members monitoring macroeconomic situations.
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This text doesn’t comprise funding recommendation or suggestions. Each funding and buying and selling transfer includes threat, and readers ought to conduct their very own analysis when making a call.