Morning Minute: Polymarket Will get the Inexperienced Mild; Kalshi Hits a Wall – Decrypt

Morning Minute is a each day e-newsletter written by Tyler Warner. The evaluation and opinions expressed are his personal and don’t essentially mirror these of Decrypt. Subscribe to the Morning Minute on Substack.

GM!

As we speak’s high information:

• Crypto majors barely purple; BTC at $86,700
• Polymarket cleared to function within the US by CFTC
• Kalshi blocked for sports activities markets in Nevada after injunction eliminated
• Texas buys $5M of BTC through IBIT for state degree BTC Reserve
• MON token jumps one other 24% to $4.8B FDV, leads all high movers

⚖️ Polymarket Will get the Inexperienced Mild; Kalshi Hits a Wall

Two huge regulatory selections impacting prediction markets simply dropped.

They usually level in utterly reverse instructions.

📌 What Occurred

Yesterday, Polymarket acquired formal approval from the CFTC to function legally in america.

It permits Polymarket to deliver on U.S. customers by regulated intermediaries and dealer companions, and supply markets that move federal threat, suitability, and contract-type exams.

This can be a full reversal from 2022, when the CFTC fined and successfully exiled Polymarket from serving U.S. prospects.#

Kalshi, in the meantime, simply ran immediately into the alternative final result.

Again in April, Kalshi gained a preliminary injunction stopping Nevada gaming regulators from imposing a cease-and-desist order in opposition to it.

Yesterday, the identical federal choose (Andrew Gordon) reversed himself and dissolved that injunction, siding with the Nevada Gaming Management Board.

Nevada argued Kalshi’s “occasion contracts” on sports activities are simply sports activities bets and require a Nevada gaming license. And election contracts fall underneath the identical class.

With the injunction resolved, Nevada can deal with Kalshi like another sportsbook and organize them to cease providing sports activities contracts or face enforcement.

This implies Kalshi both has to geo-fence Nevada or apply for a Nevada gaming license.

So now Polymarket is federally accredited, and Kalshi is blocked on the state degree.

🗣️ What Are They Saying

Kalshi’s interpretation “would require all sports activities betting throughout the nation to come back inside the jurisdiction of the Commodity Futures Buying and selling Fee (CFTC)”

“That interpretation upsets a long time of federalism relating to gaming regulation, is opposite to Congress’ intent … and can’t be sustained.” – Choose Gordon

“As different courts have acknowledged, Kalshi is a regulated, nationwide alternate for real-world occasions, and it’s topic to unique federal jurisdiction. It’s very totally different from what state-regulated sportsbooks and casinos supply their prospects. We’re evaluating the choice and anticipate making an attraction to the Ninth Circuit.” – Sara Slane, Kalshi Head of Company Improvement

🧠 Why It Issues

This was a really blended day for the way forward for prediction markets within the US.

The Polymarket information is a significant constructive, and now the world’s greatest participant has the inexperienced gentle to function within the US.

That’s enormous.

However what does “function within the US” seem like in 2026?

Kalshi is now successfully blocked in Nevada, and different states are more likely to observe Nevada’s lead. For perspective, DraftKings and FanDuel are blocked in some capability in 10-15 states.

Kalshi can (and sure will) nonetheless attraction the choice, as their head of company growth instructed. So it’s not over but.

However now each Kalshi and now Polymarket are more likely to face related blocks (or at a minimal, ongoing litigation) in additional of these states the place playing is banned, primarily based on this Nevada precedent.

That’s a significant setback.

The conflict at no cost and open prediction market utilization throughout the U.S. is much from resolved.

One battle gained, one misplaced – and much more to come back…

🌎 Macro Crypto and Memes

A number of Crypto and Web3 headlines that caught my eye:

• Crypto majors are barely purple; BTC -1% at $86,600; ETH -1% at $2,910, BNB +1% at $856, SOL even at $136
• MON (+24%), SPX (+13%), and IP (+7%) led high movers
• Texas kicked off its Bitcoin reserve by buying $5M of BlackRock’s IBIT ETF, starting to deploy an accredited $10M BTC finances
• U.S. Financial institution examined issuing a proprietary stablecoin on the Stellar community
• MoonPay secured a New York belief constitution, becoming a member of Coinbase and Ripple and increasing its skill to custody belongings and serve establishments
• Polymarket gained CFTC approval to reenter the U.S., clearing the way in which to onboard home customers, brokers, and intermediaries immediately
• Kalshi was successfully blocked in Nevada from providing sports activities and election markets after a choose reversed his unique ruling
• Klarna introduced a KlarnaUSD stablecoin on Tempo
• The Dept of Homeland Safety has been investigating Bitmain as a nationwide safety threat, attempting to find out if it may entry its tools remotely

In Company Treasuries / ETFs

• Metaplanet revealed plans to make use of its present Bitcoin stash as collateral for a $130 million mortgage, intending to purchase much more BTC for its treasury
• Saylor’s Technique shared that even when BTC drops to $74k, they are going to have 5.9x belongings to convertible debt

In Memes / Onchain Movers

• Memecoin leaders are largely purple, led by SPX; DOGE even, Shiba +3%, PEPE even, PENGU -6%, BONK -3%, TRUMP -2%, SPX +14%, and FARTCOIN -10%
• REKT jumped 37% in a rebound to $120M fdv
• WOJAK jumped 100% to $37M main onchain movers; Billy (+2,200%) and Toly (+800%) have been different notable movers

💰 Token, Airdrop & Protocol Tracker

Right here’s a rundown of main token, protocol and airdrop information from the day:

🚚 What is going on in NFTs?

Right here is the checklist of different notable headlines from the day in NFTs:

• NFT leaders have been largely flat on Tuesday; Punks -1% at 30.8 ETH, Pudgy -1% at 5.67, BAYC -1% at 5.89 ETH; Hypurr’s +3% at 720 HYPE
• Infinex Patrons (+22%) and Good Vibes Membership (+13%) led notable movers