BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes expects most layer-1 blockchain networks to fade, arguing that solely Ethereum and Solana have the institutional use instances wanted to outlive long run.
In a November 28 look on the Altcoin Each day podcast, Hayes mentioned the rising listing of other base-layer blockchains has not modified his view. He nonetheless expects the market to consolidate round a small group of dominant networks.
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Why Hayes Thinks Ethereum and Solana Will Endure
Hayes argued that Ethereum’s function in institutional adoption is central to its sturdiness.
In response to him, Ethereum will likely be utilized by these buyers to attain their Web3 objectives, whereas he expects a “basket of primary public L1s” to stay related within the years forward.
“Ethereum, this entire ecosystem, goes for use by TradFi to attain no matter they need to do inside Web3…Ethereum is clearly profitable and going to maintain profitable,” he mentioned.
He pointed to Solana as the one different chain with related endurance. Hayes cited the community’s current rebound, although he mentioned its subsequent development driver is unclear.
In response to him, the meme coin frenzy on Solana has petered out, and the community would wish to search out “new tips” to spice up its development.
“Solana wants a brand new trick. I don’t know what that new trick is, however once more, it’s the quantity two largest L1. I believe they’ll discover one thing,” Hayes famous.
Regardless of that optimism, Hayes mentioned Solana is unlikely to outperform Ethereum over time. He added that “just about each different L1 apart from Ethereum or Solana is a zero.”
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Ethereum and Solana stay the 2 largest layer-1 networks by market capitalization and have attracted institutional consideration from companies corresponding to Franklin Templeton.
Bearish View on Monad
In the meantime, Hayes was much more skeptical about Monad, which launched its MON token and public blockchain this week.
The undertaking markets itself as a high-performance layer-1 with parallelized execution appropriate with the Ethereum Digital Machine, prompting some trade individuals to name it the “subsequent ETH killer.”
Hayes rejected that characterization by declaring that “just about each different L1 apart from Ethereum or Solana is a zero they usually’re not going to do very effectively.”
He described Monad as “one other bear chain” and predicted the token “goes to go down 99% as a result of it’s one other high-FTV, low-float piece of VC lint.”
Although he acknowledged shopping for some MON tokens, he mentioned its early worth strikes don’t translate into sturdy worth.
“Each coin will get their first pump, and other people need to consider within the new L1 as a result of all people desires to spend money on the brand new Ethereum like they might have in 2014 when everybody missed it, me included. However once more, that doesn’t imply that it’s going to truly have any actual use case,” Hayes emphasised.
Contemplating this, Hayes mentioned his broader market thesis nonetheless facilities on Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana, however famous that ZCash and Ethena may spherical out his top-five listing.