A Polymarket dealer has earned practically $1 million by inserting suspiciously correct bets on Google’s 2025 Yr in Search rankings, sparking heated debate about insider buying and selling on prediction markets.
The pockets tackle “0xafEe” (beforehand “AlphaRaccoon”) netted practically $1 million by accurately predicting practically each consequence in Google search pattern markets.
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The dealer purchased “Sure” shares on d4vd, a 20-year-old singer given only a 0.2% probability of being essentially the most searched particular person of 2025, turning a $10,647 wager into practically $200,000. The actual cash got here from betting “No” on favorites like Pope Leo XIV, Bianca Censori, and Donald Trump.
In keeping with Meta engineer Jeong Haeju, who uncovered the scenario on X, the dealer achieved a 22-for-23 success price on Google search predictions. Public blockchain information reveals the pockets deposited $3 million into Polymarket final Friday and instantly started inserting giant bets. The identical account beforehand gained over $150,000 by accurately predicting the precise Gemini 3.0 Flash launch date.
“This isn’t a fortunate streak. He beforehand made $150K+ predicting the early launch of Gemini 3.0 earlier than outcomes have been out. At this level it’s apparent: He’s a Google insider milking Polymarket for fast cash,” Haeju stated.
Nonetheless, there’s no affirmation that the dealer is definitely a Google insider. The allegations stay neighborhood hypothesis based mostly on the bizarre successful streak.
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Insider Buying and selling: Function or Bug?
The incident has divided the crypto neighborhood. Some argue that prediction markets are designed particularly for insider buying and selling, creating monetary incentives to share privileged info with the market.
“The rationale for prediction markets to exist is insider buying and selling. In shares it’s prohibited, with predictions it’s endorsed. It’s designed to be like this,” X person WiiMee stated
The controversy arises as Polymarket formally relaunched in the US this week after receiving CFTC approval. The platform introduced Wednesday that its iOS app is now rolling out to waitlisted customers, beginning with sports activities markets.
Polymarket processed over $3.7 billion in buying and selling quantity in November 2025. The platform acquired an enormous increase when Intercontinental Alternate (ICE), mum or dad firm of the NYSE, invested as much as $2 billion in October, valuing Polymarket at roughly $9 billion. Latest studies recommend the corporate is now searching for extra funding at a $12 billion valuation.
Chief Advertising Officer Matthew Modabber confirmed the platform will launch its native POLY token together with an airdrop for customers, although not instantly.
“We may have launched a token each time we wished, however we would like it to be with true utility, longevity, and to be round endlessly,” Modabber stated.
The token launch is predicted to happen in 2026, following the stabilization of the US platform.
For Polymarket, which confronted scrutiny over alleged manipulation through the 2024 presidential election, the way it handles insider info may outline its regulatory future. The Google search markets saga serves as a check case for whether or not prediction markets are environment friendly info aggregators or insider revenue machines.