Technique Bitcoin Sale Fears “Flat Incorrect,” Bitwise Says

Fears that Michael Saylor’s MicroStrategy (MSTR) could also be pressured to promote Bitcoin whether it is delisted from MSCI indexes is “flat fallacious,” mentioned Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan.

“I perceive why bears wish to embrace the MSTR ‘doom loop’ thought,” he mentioned in a Dec. 3 be aware to shoppers. “It could certainly be very dangerous for the bitcoin market if MSTR needed to promote its $60 billion of bitcoin in a single go. However with no debt due till 2027 and sufficient money to cowl curiosity funds for the foreseeable future, I simply don’t see it occurring.”

He famous that with Bitcoin’s value at $92k, and it’s buying and selling at $92.9k as of 11:52 a.m. EST, it’s 24% above the common value at which Technique acquired its stash, Hougan mentioned.

”There are many issues to fret about in crypto,” he added. ”Michael Saylor and Technique promoting bitcoin is just not considered one of them.”

The issues come as MSTR finds itself in a funk. Google Finance knowledge exhibits that MSTR has plummeted over 23% previously month, and nearly 50% within the final six months. 

MSTR value (Supply: Google Finance)

MSCI And Different Index Removals Gained’t Have Such A Massive Influence, Hougan Says

MSCI introduced on Oct. 10 that it was contemplating eradicating digital asset treasury (DAT) corporations from its investable indexes, with a choice due subsequent month.

JPMorgan estimates that such a delisting would doubtless end in as much as $2.8 billion of MSTR inventory being bought, and way more if different index suppliers adopted go well with, with some $9 billion of MSTR held by passive fund managers.

“I’m not satisfied that removing could be an enormous deal for the inventory,” Hougan mentioned. “$2.8 billion is a number of promoting, however my expertise from watching index additions and deletions through the years is that the impact is usually smaller than you assume and priced in effectively forward of time.” 

When MSTR was added to the Nasdaq 100 Index final December, funds monitoring the index had to purchase $2.1 billion of MSTR, Hougan mentioned, including that the corporate’s inventory value “barely moved.” 

“Lengthy-term, the worth of MSTR is predicated on how effectively it executes its technique, not on whether or not index funds are pressured to personal it,” he argued. 

In response to fears of the delisting from MSCI indexes, Saylor mentioned, ”We’re a publicly traded working firm with a $500 million software program enterprise and a singular treasury technique that makes use of Bitcoin as productive capital. Index classification doesn’t outline us.”

Response to MSCI Index Matter

Technique is just not a fund, not a belief, and never a holding firm. We’re a publicly traded working firm with a $500 million software program enterprise and a singular treasury technique that makes use of Bitcoin as productive capital.

This yr alone, we’ve accomplished…

— Michael Saylor (@saylor) November 21, 2025

Math Exhibits That Technique Has No Purpose To Promote Bitcoin

Hougan additionally mentioned the straightforward math doesn’t help the thought of doom loop for MSTR.

“MSTR has two related obligations on its debt: It must pay about $800 million a yr in curiosity and it must convert or roll over particular debt devices as they arrive due,” Hougan mentioned. ”Each of those obligations aren’t a near-term concern for Technique.”

The curiosity funds aren’t a near-term concern as a result of the corporate has $1.4 billion in money, which means it could possibly make its dividend funds simply for a yr and a half, he mentioned.

Technique’s first debt instrument doesn’t come due till February 2027, and the quantity is simply about $1 billion, which Hougan mentioned is “chump change” for an organization that at present holds $60 billion in Bitcoin on its stability sheet.

May insiders strain MSTR to promote bitcoin if its inventory continued buying and selling decrease, Hougan requested.

”Uncertain,” he mentioned. ”Michael Saylor himself controls 42% of the voting shares, and also you’d be exhausting pressed to discover a human being with extra conviction on bitcoin’s long-term worth. He didn’t promote the final time MSTR inventory traded at a reduction, in 2022.”

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