Two Bitcoin wallets linked by analysts to Silk Highway–period exercise final moved 3,421 BTC in Might this yr. Now, follow-on exercise on Dec. 10 added a recent pulse to a yr of dormant-supply awakenings.
In response to the Digital Watch Observatory, the Might spends totaled about 3,421 BTC, roughly $322.5 million on the time.
The sequence included a 2,343 BTC outlay at block peak 895,421 that rerouted outputs into a brand new SegWit tackle sample.
On-chain forensics present 31 outputs with consolidation into a brand new P2WPKH vacation spot, a sample extra in keeping with custody housekeeping than fast change deposition.
Trackers on Dec. 10 flagged extra consolidation totaling simply over $3 million from over 300 wallets labeled as Silk Highway–linked, sustaining consideration on these addresses and alluring a near-term learn on whether or not labels or routing matter extra for worth discovery.
The December flows have been small in BTC phrases relative to the Might sequence, though nonetheless well timed given renewed sensitivity to old-coin actions this yr.
That sensitivity has been formed by episodes by which government-controlled Silk Highway cash have been routed to Coinbase Prime, a step merchants deal with as a sale-preparatory transfer.
The U.S. authorities transferred 10,000 BTC to Coinbase Prime in August 2024 and about 19,800 BTC in December 2024, and these transfers have coincided with short-lived risk-off positioning within the days across the transfers.
Provenance issues for this storyline
The Might wallets have been initially created in July 2013 after which have been silent for about 11 to 12 years earlier than spending, which anchors the setup for a dormant-supply narrative.
The output construction in the course of the Might sequence leaned towards consolidation and re-keying, with recent Bech32 custody locations fairly than exchange-labeled deposit heuristics.
That distinction shapes dealer response, as a result of flows into Coinbase Prime or different prime dealer venues are handled as near-term provide, whereas inside consolidation to P2WPKH doesn’t suggest imminent distribution.
A sensible method to evaluate scale and routing is to line up the Silk Highway–linked pockets strikes towards two prior U.S. authorities transfers that hit Coinbase Prime.
The quantities concerned in 2024 have been an order of magnitude bigger than the Might 2025 dormant-wallet spends, which helps clarify why market contributors prioritize exchange-tagged receipts over unlabeled consolidations.
| Date window | Controller / label | Quantity (BTC) | Approx. USD at time | Routing sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Might 5–7, 2025 | Silk Highway–linked wallets | 3,421 | ~$322.5M | Consolidation to new P2WPKH |
| Aug. 2024 | U.S. authorities, Silk Highway seizures | 10,000 | ~$600M | To Coinbase Prime |
| Dec. 2024 | U.S. authorities, Silk Highway seizures | ~19,800 | ~$2B | To Coinbase Prime |
| Dec. 10, 2025 | Silk Highway–linked wallets | ~$3M equal | — | Comply with-on consolidation |
The class of Silk Highway cash has an extended public observe file by way of auctions, seizures, and newer exchange-routed transfers. In 2014, the U.S. Marshals Service auctioned 29,656 BTC seized from Silk Highway, a sale received by Tim Draper, which set an early playbook for clear liquidation.
That public sale demonstrated that official provide might be scheduled and absorbed with out an opaque drip. The method has advanced. The Division of Justice and IRS-CI later seized 69,370 BTC tied to “Particular person X” in 2020 and 50,676 BTC from James Zhong, introduced in 2022, with sentencing in 2023.
A 2023 court docket submitting outlined a staged liquidation of about 41,490 BTC from the Zhong cache throughout 2023, which gave markets interim visibility into execution however nonetheless left timing danger round switch days.
Labels and routing now sit on the heart of dealer interpretation
Coinbase Prime receipts, or different exchange-labeled custody endpoints, are learn as a prelude to distribution by way of OTC or block buying and selling, which might compress foundation and nudge funding towards impartial as desks hedge stock.
Consolidation to recent P2WPKH addresses, in contrast, aligns with inside re-keying or transferring to up to date custody stacks, which carries a decrease fast sale chance.
The Might 2025 paths match the latter mould, whereas the bigger 2024 authorities transfers match the previous, which has been the set off for choice skew to lean put-heavy and for implied volatility to pop briefly tenors.
Market construction in December 2025 provides one other layer. Report outflows from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs in November, adopted by renewed inflows in early December, left merchants targeted on the stability between passive demand and any labeled provide.
Weekly fund-flow swings stay the highest-frequency barometer for route, and flows can offset or amplify the sign from labeled on-chain transfers. If change tags don’t seem after a labeled pockets spends, realized volatility tends to mean-revert as liquidity suppliers normalize their stock.
A benign consolidation path, with a 40–55% chance, would contain continued migration to recent SegWit or Bech32 custody with out change tags. The end result can be a brief headline window, fading choice skew, and a return to ETF-led tape.
A stealth OTC distribution path, with a 25–35% chance, would see cash path to a main dealer like Coinbase Prime after which transfer by way of block trades, producing delicate and chronic ask-side strain and compressing foundation whereas funding moderates.
A headline-driven de-risk path at 10–20% would require new, bigger authorities transfers within the 10,000-20,000 BTC vary that coincide with a weak ETF movement day, triggering speedy downticks as miners and perpetual merchants promote into the transfer. The 2024 switch playbook is the most effective analog for that third situation.
The 2025 sample of dormant wallets reactivating has added to the label danger premium
There have been a number of Satoshi-era awakenings this yr, and a wave of cohort spends older than 7 years into the fourth quarter, which helps clarify why even modest December actions from Silk Highway–linked labels nonetheless register in positioning.
That mentioned, on-chain particulars stay the primary filter. P2WPKH consolidation, recent custody locations, and the absence of exchange-labeled receipts inside 24 to 72 hours have aligned with low follow-through on worth in prior instances.
Conversely, Arkham or Whale Alert flags that explicitly present Coinbase Prime receipts, paired with mid-day U.S. prints, have coincided with short-term stock hedging, wider short-dated put skew, and a softer foundation.
Historical past supplies grounding. The primary main public liquidation in 2014 by way of the USMS public sale confirmed that scheduled, clear gross sales may be absorbed. Subsequent seizures, together with the 69,370 BTC linked to “Particular person X” and the 50,676 BTC from James Zhong as famous by the Division of Justice, moved right into a framework the place courts cleared liquidation pathways.
A 2025 court docket choice declined to dam the sale of a separate 69,370 BTC cache, successfully preserving the authorized channel open.
For the fast tape, the watchlist is simple. Search for exchange-labeled receipts, particularly Coinbase Prime, within the days after any recent Silk Highway–linked spend.
Monitor each day ETF movement route, for the reason that interplay between passive demand and labeled provide governs whether or not headlines fade or drive a broader de-risk. Monitor the choices floor for short-dated skew leaning towards places, together with fast modifications in perpetual funding and futures foundation on switch days, which function positioning tells.
Nevertheless, on condition that billions of {dollars}’ value of Bitcoin is now commonly absorbed by ETF liquidity every week, it’s unlikely that any Silk Highway gross sales would materially have an effect on the Bitcoin worth with out another psychological catalyst.
In response to the Digital Watch Observatory, the Might 2025 sample factors to consolidation over distribution, and the Dec. 10 exercise stays in keeping with that base case till change tags seem.