In accordance with Markus Thielen, head of analysis at 10x Analysis, Bitcoin’s acquainted four-year cycle nonetheless exists, however what drives that rhythm has modified. He instructed listeners on The Wolf Of All Streets Podcast that the calendar timing of halvings is not the principle pressure. As an alternative, election timing, central financial institution strikes and the place cash flows now matter extra.
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Shift From Halving To Politics And Liquidity
Thielen highlighted that Bitcoin’s main peaks in 2013, 2017, and 2021 all occurred within the fourth quarter, and he believes these highs match up extra carefully with election cycles and political uncertainty than with the timing of the halvings.
In accordance with him, there may be added market fear about whether or not the sitting president’s get together will preserve management of Congress. He stated that might form coverage and investor decisions, and he talked about US President Donald Trump when discussing present political odds. The message was clear: politics adjustments expectations, and expectations transfer costs.
The four-year cycle remains to be intact, however it’s pushed by midterm elections, not the halving.@markus10x pic.twitter.com/5td8bLgb20
— The Wolf Of All Streets (@scottmelker) December 13, 2025
Liquidity And Institutional Warning
The current Fed charge minimize didn’t spark the standard broad rally in danger belongings. Institutional traders, who now have a bigger function in crypto markets, are appearing extra guardedly as coverage alerts stay blended and liquidity appears to be like tighter.
Capital inflows into Bitcoin have slowed in contrast with final yr, Thielen stated, eradicating among the shopping for strain that helped push costs increased earlier than. Arthur Hayes, the BitMEX co-founder, made an identical level in October, saying that international liquidity, not an computerized four-year clock, has at all times pushed the principle strikes in cryptocurrency. In accordance with Hayes, halvings could line up with rallies typically, however they’re usually coincidental.
Bitcoin slipped under $90,000 in skinny Sunday buying and selling, an indication of fragile demand when volumes are low. Ether confirmed relative power whereas main altcoins lagged. Merchants are positioning forward of a busy week of US knowledge and central financial institution occasions, placing premium on alerts that have an effect on liquidity and danger urge for food. With institutional desks watching macro reads carefully, momentum is more likely to rely upon flows relatively than calendar dates.
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What This Means For Buyers
The clearest takeaway is easy. The four-year sample can nonetheless assist body expectations, however it shouldn’t be handled as a rule. Halvings have an effect on provide and miner economics, they usually matter to some market actors, however in a market formed by massive funds and ETFs the actual gasoline is money and credit score situations.
When liquidity loosens, costs can run. When it tightens, rallies can finish. That lesson sits on the heart of each Thielen’s and Hayes’s views.
Coverage and liquidity at the moment are central to Bitcoin’s cycles. Studies point out that the sample has shifted from a purely mechanical schedule to 1 influenced by broader cash situations and political timelines. Market members look like responding to financial information and central financial institution alerts alongside the block reward schedule.
Featured picture from Unsplash, chart from TradingView