Asset supervisor Bitwise launched a brand new report that argues that bitcoin is poised to interrupt from its historic four-year market cycle, setting new all-time highs in 2026 whereas changing into much less risky and fewer correlated with equities.
Bitwise’s Chief Funding Officer Matt Hougen outlined three forecasts he says matter most for crypto traders: the tip of the four-year cycle, continued volatility compression, and declining correlation between BTC and conventional inventory markets.
The four-year cycle is ‘considerably weaker’
Bitcoin has traditionally adopted a four-year sample tied to the halving cycle, sometimes marked by three years of positive factors adopted by a pointy pullback. Underneath that framework, 2026 could be anticipated to be a down yr.
Bitwise disagrees.
“The forces that beforehand drove four-year cycles — the BTC halving, rate of interest cycles, and crypto’s leverage-fueled booms and busts — are considerably weaker than they’ve been in previous cycles,” Hougan wrote.
He pointed to the diminishing impression of successive halvings, expectations for falling rates of interest in 2026, and diminished systemic leverage following file liquidations in October 2025. Enhancing regulatory readability can be anticipated to decrease the danger of main market blow-ups.
Extra importantly, Bitwise expects institutional capital flows to speed up. With spot bitcoin ETFs accepted in 2024, the agency anticipates broader participation from main wealth platforms comparable to Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo, and Merrill Lynch, alongside elevated adoption from Wall Road and fintech companies amid a extra favorable regulatory atmosphere following the 2024 U.S. election.
Bitwise believes these elements might push bitcoin to contemporary all-time highs, successfully ending the relevance of the four-year cycle.
Bitcoin volatility continues to say no
The agency additionally challenged the long-standing criticism that BTC is simply too risky for mainstream traders.
Based on Bitwise, BTC was much less risky than Nvidia inventory all through 2025, a comparability Hougan says underscores the asset’s ongoing maturation. Information cited within the report exhibits bitcoin’s volatility has steadily declined over the previous decade as its investor base has diversified and conventional funding automobiles like ETFs have expanded entry.
Bitwise expects that pattern to proceed into 2026, likening bitcoin’s evolution to gold’s transition following the launch of gold ETFs within the early 2000s.
Decrease correlation with equities
Lastly, Bitwise predicts BTC’s correlation with shares will fall additional in 2026. Whereas critics typically declare bitcoin trades in lockstep with equities, Hougan famous that rolling 90-day correlations with the S&P 500 have hardly ever exceeded 0.50.
Wanting forward, Bitwise expects crypto-specific catalysts—comparable to regulatory progress and institutional adoption—to drive bitcoin independently, at the same time as fairness markets grapple with valuation issues and slowing financial development.
Taken collectively, the agency sees 2026 shaping up as a good yr for bitcoin traders, characterised by sturdy returns, decrease volatility, and diminished correlation with conventional property.
“That’s the trifecta for traders,” Hougan wrote, including that these dynamics might drive tens of billions of {dollars} in new institutional inflows.