K33 says bitcoin’s extended sell-side strain from long-term holders is nearing saturation after a multi-year distribution part.
What K33 says is going on
In a Dec. 16 report, K33 Head of Analysis Vetle Lunde stated provide held in unspent transaction outputs older than two years has been declining since 2024.
K33 estimates about 1.6 million BTC, price roughly $138 billion at present costs, has been “reactivated” over that interval.
The agency argued the dimensions suggests significant distribution fairly than purely technical actions.
Why provide is being reactivated
Lunde stated some reactivations could also be defined by occasions like Grayscale’s Bitcoin Belief changing into an ETF, pockets consolidation, and security-related tackle upgrades.
Nevertheless, he stated these elements don’t absolutely clarify the magnitude of provide returning to circulation.
K33 described 2024 and 2025 because the second and third-largest years for long-term provide reactivation in bitcoin’s historical past, behind solely 2017.
Transactions and liquidity backdrop
K33 pointed to massive transactions together with an 80,000 BTC over-the-counter sale accomplished by Galaxy in July, plus different whale gross sales throughout 2025.
The agency stated the present wave displays direct promoting into deeper liquidity from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs and company treasury demand.
What K33 expects subsequent
Lunde stated:
“With 20% of BTC’s provide reactivated over the previous two years, we anticipate onchain sell-side strain to strategy saturation.”
He predicted bitcoin’s “two-year provide” will finish its downtrend and shut 2026 above its present stage of about 12.16 million BTC.
K33 additionally flagged potential quarter-end rebalancing results, noting bitcoin has traditionally tended to maneuver reverse the prior quarter early in a brand new quarter.