Constancy’s Jurrien Timmer mentioned Bitcoin might have accomplished one other halving cycle in each worth and time, and he positioned help within the $65,000–$75,000 zone.
Sharing a “Bitcoin analogs” chart, the Constancy director of world macro wrote,
“Whereas I stay a secular bull on Bitcoin, my concern is that Bitcoin might nicely have ended one other 4-year cycle halving section, each in worth and time.”
He added that October’s excessive close to $125,000 match historic bull-market alignments and that “Bitcoin winters have lasted a few yr,” making 2026 a possible “yr off.”
Bitcoin analogs level to a late-cycle cooling section as time catches up with worth
The chart bands Bitcoin’s historical past into bull (inexperienced blocks) and drawdown (crimson blocks) regimes, then overlays prior-cycle “high analogs” (notably 2013 and 2017) to map how late-cycle advances have tended to roll right into a cooling window.
Its core message is that the time element has saved tempo with the value element.
Prior peaks cluster right into a topping window adopted by a retracement section that may run near a yr, which is why Timmer tied his name to each the rally’s period and the height’s degree.
That setup overlaps with a late-cycle framework specified by CryptoSlate’s cycle-clock evaluation, which tracked a 2025 peak window by making use of prior halving-to-top timing (about 526 days after the 2016 halving and about 546 days after the 2020 halving).
In that mapping, Bitcoin’s Oct. 6 print close to $126,200 arrived contained in the projected window.
It was adopted by stalled follow-through and broad-range commerce, with key help close to $108,000.
Newer tape has examined whether or not the post-peak section is popping right into a deeper reset.
A liquidity and positioning learn famous Bitcoin’s Nov. 4 dip to about $99,075 and described the transfer as a structural reset amid tighter liquidity and weaker willingness to take care of leveraged longs.
The identical report cited CheckOnChain estimates of roughly $34 billion in month-to-month sell-side stress as older cash returned to exchanges into softer demand.
It additionally highlighted a cost-basis focus, with about 63% of invested capital above $95,000, a degree merchants monitor for holder conduct and suggestions loops from compelled promoting.
Indicators of a post-peak reset, and the way deep it may go
Timmer’s $65,000–$75,000 band additionally falls contained in the drawdown math introduced in CryptoSlate’s bear-band mannequin.
The framework notes that prior bear markets have lasted 12 to 18 months, with peak-to-trough declines of round 57% in 2018 and 76% in 2014.
It then argues that ETFs and deeper derivatives may change the trail whereas leaving room for significant draw back.
Utilizing a 35%–55% drawdown band from $126,272 yields a trough zone round $82,000–$57,000, a bracket that incorporates Timmer’s help zone and ties it to a clear vary somewhat than a single level goal.
The identical math implies a low window that would land in late 2026 into early 2027 if the reset follows historic period bands.
| 2026 situation | What it appears like | Worth zone | What to observe |
|---|---|---|---|
| “Off-year” winter (Timmer) | Vary commerce, decrease highs, liquidation wicks | $75k–$65k (contained in the ~$82k–$57k drawdown band) | ETF flows keep blended to damaging, repeated help checks, tight liquidity |
| Shallower reset | Drawdown, then uneven base-building | Higher half of the ~$82k–$57k band, drifting towards the mid-$60ks | Outflows stabilize, actual yields ease, fewer compelled sellers |
| Tail-risk deleveraging | Quick unwind with stress narratives taking maintain | Beneath the band, with a $49k print outlined in a single draw back thesis | Persistently weak demand, heavier trade inflows, impaired threat urge for food |
| Cycle extension | Re-acceleration after reclaiming damaged ranges | Again above the prior vary, difficult the post-ATH ceiling | Demand reversal via flows and breakout conduct, fading promote stress |
The most important level of rivalry is whether or not the four-year template stays a workable baseline or whether or not market construction has diluted it.
In feedback on the cycle’s fading affect, Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan argued that ETFs, broader institutional entry, and regulatory progress have diminished the boom-bust mechanics that when outlined the cycle.
He expects ETF-driven adoption to play out over an extended horizon, a view that clashes with the concept of 2026 as a chosen “off-year.”
Why 2026’s macro backdrop may flip ETF flows into Bitcoin’s dominant worth driver
Even when cycle timing weakens, macro situations can nonetheless form the trail as a result of they affect ETF circulation conduct.
A 2026 macro outlook cited Financial institution of America’s base case for two.4% US actual GDP progress in 2026 and a charges regime easing towards the mid-3% vary by end-2026, a backdrop that may preserve actual yields mildly constructive.
The identical piece famous that Bitcoin ETFs can swing by greater than $1 billion in a day, making ETF flows a major transmission channel for shifts in yields and the greenback into spot demand.
For 2026, the near-term choice factors cluster round the place holders’ and flows’ help meet.
The $95,000 cost-basis shelf frames a primary stress check for positioning, whereas the $76,000 help map sits close to the highest of Timmer’s band and contained in the broader drawdown bracket.
Timmer’s analog framing is that if the final section led to each worth and time, the following section is a winter that may final a few yr, with help centered within the $65,000–$75,000 area.