Bitcoin has largely ignored what ought to have been supportive macro alerts. US CPI cooled to 2.7% in December, strengthening rate-cut expectations, but Bitcoin failed to reply. As an alternative of attracting recent capital, the worth stalled whereas cash rotated elsewhere.
That disconnect is why the Bitcoin bear market dialogue is resurfacing.
Constancy’s Director of International Macro, Jurrien Timmer, just lately warned that Bitcoin might have already ended its newest four-year cycle in October, each in value and time. The on-chain and market information since then more and more help that view.
Knowledge Alerts Counsel Bitcoin Could Already Be in a Bear Market
A number of impartial indicators now level to the identical conclusion: capital is retreating, conviction holders are promoting, and Bitcoin is absorbing danger with out actual demand.
Stablecoin Inflows Have Collapsed For the reason that Cycle Peak
Stablecoin inflows usually act as dry powder for crypto rallies. That gasoline has vanished.
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Whole trade inflows for ERC-20 stablecoins peaked at round 10.2 billion on August 14. By December 24, inflows had fallen to roughly 1.06 billion, a drop of practically 90%.
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That August influx peak intently preceded Bitcoin’s October excessive above $125,000, the identical interval Timmer recognized because the probably cycle high.
Since then, recent capital has didn’t return, reinforcing the concept that distribution changed accumulation after the height.
Lengthy-Time period Holders Have Turned Aggressive Sellers
Conviction holders are behaving otherwise after October.
Bitcoin long-term holder web place change flipped adverse shortly after the cycle excessive. Promoting accelerated from roughly 16,500 BTC per day in late October to round 279,000 BTC just lately. That is a rise of greater than 1,500% in every day distribution strain.
This aligns immediately with Timmer’s thesis that the four-year halving cycle part probably led to October. Lengthy-term holders seem to agree, decreasing publicity relatively than defending value.
Bitcoin Dominance Is Rising, However Not for Bullish Causes
Bitcoin dominance has climbed again towards 57–59%, however this isn’t a risk-on sign.
After the softer CPI print, capital didn’t rotate into Bitcoin. As an alternative, it flowed into conventional hedges. Over the previous 12 months, silver has rallied by over 120%, whereas gold is up roughly 65%. On the identical time, broader crypto markets have lagged badly.
This shift reinforces the concept that Bitcoin’s rising dominance isn’t being pushed by recent danger urge for food, however by capital retreating into relative security inside crypto.
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That view is echoed by an unique market remark shared with BeInCrypto by Ray Youssef, founder and CEO of NoOnes, who highlighted why gold has led the 2025 debasement commerce whereas Bitcoin stays range-bound.
“Whereas gold might clearly be profitable the 2025 debasement commerce on value efficiency, the comparability masks a extra nuanced market actuality. Gold’s latest run to new all-time highs and 67% YTD positive factors replicate classical defensive investor positioning as capital seeks certainty in a market surroundings outlined by fiscal extra, geopolitical pressure, and macro coverage uncertainty. Elevated central financial institution accumulation, a softer greenback, and chronic inflation dangers have bolstered gold’s function because the market’s most well-liked defensive asset,” he mentioned.
Youssef added that Bitcoin’s conduct this 12 months has diverged sharply from the digital-gold narrative.
“Bitcoin, against this, has just lately didn’t ship on the hedge narrative. The asset has not traded like digital gold in 2025, owing to its heightened sensitivity to macroeconomic elements. BTC’s upside is now tied to liquidity growth, sovereign coverage readability, and danger sentiment, relatively than to financial debasement alone,” he highlighted.
Mega-Whale Addresses Are Quietly Declining
Giant holders are additionally stepping again.
The variety of Bitcoin addresses holding greater than 10,000 BTC has fallen from 92 in early December to 88. That decline got here alongside falling costs, not accumulation.
These addresses usually symbolize institutional-scale gamers. Their discount provides one other layer of affirmation that sensible cash isn’t positioning aggressively for upside right here.
Bitcoin Stays Beneath a Important Lengthy-Time period Transferring Common
Bitcoin remains to be buying and selling beneath its 365-day shifting common close to $102,000, a degree final decisively misplaced in the beginning of the 2022 bear market.
This shifting common acts as each technical and psychological help. Failure to reclaim it suggests the market has shifted from pattern continuation to regime danger. If value stays beneath this degree, historic precedent factors towards deeper draw back zones close to the merchants’ realized value band round $72,000.
Taken collectively, these alerts help Timmer’s warning that Bitcoin might already be in a bear-market part or closing in on that, even when the worth has not absolutely mirrored it but. Capital has dried up, conviction holders are promoting, dominance is rising defensively, and macro reduction is being ignored.
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That mentioned, not all long-term cycle helps have damaged but. These counter-signals, and the precise ranges that resolve whether or not this turns into a full bear market or a chronic transition, come subsequent.
Why the Bitcoin Bear Market Case Is Not Absolutely Settled But
Regardless of the rising proof pointing towards a Bitcoin bear market, two long-term cycle indicators nonetheless argue towards a confirmed structural breakdown.
Additionally, one purpose the Bitcoin bear market case stays unresolved is how markets are deciphering the CPI slowdown. Whereas cooling inflation sometimes advantages danger property, the present response suggests buyers are prioritizing security and liquidity over progress.
That doesn’t imply the CPI sign is improper. It could merely be early, with Bitcoin traditionally reacting later than conventional hedges as soon as liquidity expectations absolutely translate into capital flows.
These and the indications we might talk about subsequent don’t negate the bearish alerts mentioned above. However they clarify why this part should resolve as a chronic transition relatively than a full bear cycle.
Pi Cycle Prime Has Not Triggered
Certainly one of Bitcoin’s most dependable cycle indicators, the Pi Cycle Prime, has not flashed a peak sign. The indicator compares the 111-day shifting common with the 350-day shifting common multiplied by two.
Traditionally, when these two strains cross, Bitcoin has been close to or at main cycle tops.
As of now, the 2 strains stay broadly separated. That implies Bitcoin isn’t in an overheated or euphoric part, even after the October excessive.
This contradicts the thought raised by Constancy’s Director of International Macro, Jurrien Timmer, who famous that the October peak close to $125,000 match prior cycle timing.
In previous cycles, true bear markets started after clear Pi Cycle confirmations. That sign remains to be absent.
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The two-12 months SMA Stays the Line That Issues Most
The second and extra instant counter-argument is structural. Bitcoin remains to be buying and selling close to its 2-year easy shifting common, which sits round $82,800.
This degree has repeatedly acted as Bitcoin’s long-term pattern divider. Month-to-month closes above the 2-year SMA have traditionally marked cycle survival.
Sustained closes beneath it have marked deep bear phases.
Thus far, Bitcoin has not confirmed a month-to-month shut beneath this line.
That makes December’s month-to-month shut important. If Bitcoin holds above $82,800 into year-end, the market probably stays in a late-cycle transition relatively than a confirmed Bitcoin bear market.
That consequence retains open the likelihood that 2026 displays delayed upside relatively than extended draw back.
Nevertheless, if December closes decisively beneath the 2-year SMA, draw back projections towards the $65,000–$75,000 vary, referenced by Timmer, acquire structural backing.
TL;DR —Key Bitcoin Worth Ranges To Watch Now
The bearish framework additionally has clear invalidation ranges. A reclaim of the 365-day shifting common close to $102,000 would materially weaken the bear market thesis. That might align with Tom Lee’s year-end Bitcoin value prediction.
That degree marked the beginning of the 2022 bear market when it broke, and would sign renewed pattern power if recovered.
In easy phrases:
- Above $82,800 into December shut: transition part stays intact
- Beneath $82,800 on a month-to-month foundation: bear market danger escalates
- Again above $102,000: bullish construction begins rebuilding
For now, Bitcoin sits between conviction promoting and long-term cycle help. The market isn’t confirming power, however it’s not absolutely breaking both.
The December shut will resolve which narrative carries into 2026.