The US ETF market achieved a historic “triple crown” in 2025, setting data in inflows ($1.4 trillion), new launches (1,100+), and buying and selling quantity ($57.9 trillion). That is the primary time all three metrics hit data concurrently since 2021.
Three consecutive years of double-digit S&P 500 positive factors powered the rally. However Wall Road is beginning to ask: what comes subsequent?
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The Ghost of 2022
That precedent carries a warning. The yr following the 2021 triple crown noticed the S&P 500 plunge 19% amid the Federal Reserve’s aggressive charge hikes. The tech-driven rally that fueled ETF inflows reversed sharply, with each inflows and launches slowing in 2022.
The parallels are laborious to disregard. In 2021, exuberance round tech shares drove file demand. In 2025, AI spending has dominated whereas skepticism is mounting. Since October, the S&P 500 has traded sideways as Wall Road questions the returns on Large Tech’s AI capex.
Eric Balchunas, senior ETF analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, warned: “Due to how excellent this yr appeared to be for ETFs, you type of need to brace for it.” He recommended a “actuality test” may are available 2026 by market volatility or leveraged ETF blowups—dangers already demonstrated by GraniteShares’ 3x Brief AMD ETP, which misplaced 88.9% in a single day and was liquidated in October.
The Crypto ETF Rotation
Throughout the broader ETF increase, a placing divergence is taking part in out in cryptocurrency funds.
BlackRock’s IBIT attracted $25.4 billion regardless of a -9.6% return—the one damaging performer among the many high 10 circulation leaders. Balchunas referred to as it “Boomers placing on a HODL clinic.” However the tide turned after Bitcoin’s 30% drop from its October excessive. IBIT recorded 5 consecutive weeks of outflows totaling $2.7 billion. Ethereum ETFs adopted with seven straight days of outflows in December, totaling $685 million.
The alternative emerged in newly launched altcoin ETFs. US spot XRP ETFs, debuting November 13, recorded 28 consecutive buying and selling days of web inflows—unmatched by any crypto ETF at launch. Cumulative inflows reached $1.14 billion with zero outflow days. Nonetheless, the day by day tempo—largely $10-50 million—pales in comparison with Bitcoin ETFs, which often drew $500 million or extra of their early days.
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Solana ETFs attracted $750 million regardless of SOL’s 53% value decline—although in contrast to XRP, they skilled a number of outflow days in late November and early December.
| BTC | ETH | XRP | SOL | |
| YTD Inflows | $25.4B | $10.3B | $1.14B | $750M |
| Dec 1-24 | -$629M | -$512M | +$470M | +$132M |
| Notable | 5-week outflows | 7-day outflows | 28-day influx streak | Inflows regardless of -53% |
December crystallized this rotation. By way of December 24, Bitcoin ETFs shed $629 million, whereas Ethereum misplaced $512 million; XRP added $470 million, and Solana gained $132 million.
Structural Shift or Non permanent Adjustment?
These arguing for structural change level to regulatory readability—XRP’s SEC lawsuit concluded in August with a $125 million settlement, classifying it as a non-security. Utility narratives are additionally gaining traction: XRP’s cross-border funds and Solana’s DeFi ecosystem supply purposes past “digital gold.”
Skeptics warning that XRP and SOL’s constant inflows could mirror a “honeymoon impact” typical of recent ETF launches. Regardless of file ETF inflows, XRP stays 50% beneath its July peak, and SOL has dropped 53% since October—a disconnect some attribute to year-end profit-taking and to whales distributing holdings offsetting institutional demand.
2026 Outlook
With dozens of crypto ETF purposes nonetheless awaiting SEC evaluate, extra altcoin merchandise are anticipated in 2026.
The ETF market’s “excellent yr” shall be remembered alongside correction warnings. However the rotation inside crypto ETFs suggests institutional buyers have gotten selective—shifting past Bitcoin and Ethereum towards property with regulatory readability and real-world utility. Whether or not this pattern continues shall be a key indicator for the broader market’s path.