The Solana value is down about 12% over the previous 30 days. As 2026 approaches, the chart exhibits a mixture of bullish and bearish indicators.
Some indicators recommend a bounce in January, however others point out that strain may persist if momentum fails to materialize.
Historical past Leans Bullish, However ETF Flows And Skilled Views Break up
January has been a powerful month for Solana. The typical return sits close to 59%, with median positive factors round 22%. The sample sharpens when December ends purple.
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In 2022, SOL fell 29.6% in December, and in January 2023, SOL rallied 140%. In December 2024, SOL dropped 20.5%, and in January 2025, it rose 22.3%. This month is down 6.94% to this point, which statistically leans towards a rebound.
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ETF knowledge backs that concept. Since launch, Solana spot ETFs haven’t posted a single week of internet outflows. The newest week added $13.14 million (incomplete week nonetheless), bringing cumulative inflows to $755.77 million.
That regular demand indicators selective confidence in SOL at a time when different majors face withdrawals.
B2BinPay’s analytics group describes what that move sample means for Solana and the broader market, of their dialog with BeInCrypto:
“Buyers aren’t rotating wholesale out of Bitcoin and Ethereum into the altcoin market. They prioritize a small group of liquid, well-known tokens the place draw back feels controllable, and positions could be closed rapidly if wanted.
That’s why only some altcoins resembling Solana or XRP are seeing inflows, whereas a lot of the market is quiet. Present inflows into Solana shouldn’t be learn as the beginning of the altseason. These strikes are slim and particularly selective,” they mentioned.
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This helps SOL’s ETF inflows, nevertheless it additionally warns to not body the transfer as a broad altseason setup.
Chart Alerts Trace At Reversal, However EMAs And Derivatives Present Resistance
On the two-day chart, the SOL value made a decrease low between November 21 and December 17, whereas the RSI (Relative Energy Index, a momentum gauge exhibiting overbought/oversold energy) made the next low. That may be a bullish divergence and may point out early development reversal if patrons observe by means of.
However a bearish situation sits proper beside it.
On the identical timeframe, the 100-period EMA (Exponential Transferring Common, a trend-tracking line that reacts quicker to cost) is on the verge of crossing beneath the 200-period EMA.
If that bearish crossover confirms, draw back strain may proceed into late December or early January earlier than any restoration can stick. Till that crossover is averted or reversed, the technical image stays break up.
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Derivatives positioning exhibits extra warning. On Hyperliquid, nearly each dealer bracket has internet quick positioning throughout the final seven days.
Prime 100 addresses, sensible cash, and Solana whale accounts are all internet quick. But, some teams (sensible cash, public figures, and perp winners) are slowly opening longs. That may very well be in anticipation of a bullish January 2026, as highlighted earlier.
This combine leaves the setup balanced. Momentum suggests a reversal may very well be forming. EMAs and derivatives positioning argue for endurance. If Solana needs to construct a January rally, it must flip that spinoff sentiment away from shorts whereas avoiding the EMA cross.
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Key Solana Worth Ranges: $129 Is The Pivot, $116 Is The Fail-Secure
SOL trades close to $124. A two-day shut above $129 would affirm energy and open a path towards $150. Clearing $150 may then goal $171 if ETF inflows maintain and RSI momentum continues to construct.
Value-basis warmth map knowledge explains why $129 issues. One of many strongest provide clusters sits between $123 and $124, and SOL is at present preventing by means of it.
An in depth above $129 clears that cluster and removes fast overhead resistance. Above that, provide thins till $165 to $167, bettering the chances of continuation if quantity arrives.
A price-basis warmth map tracks the place massive teams of holders acquired their tokens, which highlights zones the place provide or demand could cluster.
On the draw back, $116 stays the fail-safe. Shedding that stage breaks the historic “purple December, inexperienced January” development and units up continuation of the downtrend. A confirmed bearish EMA crossover, accompanied by a break beneath $116, would reset expectations for the month.
For now, the commerce is outlined by two thresholds. Above $129, bullish momentum permits room to maneuver towards $150 and $171. Beneath $116, patrons lose management, and January’s regular energy could not present up.