Polymarket merchants are assigning comparatively low odds to bitcoin reaching $150,000 earlier than 2027, whilst a number of analysts have forecast a robust 2026.
Polymarket odds by value degree
Within the Polymarket market titled “What value will Bitcoin hit earlier than 2027?”, merchants at the moment give bitcoin a 21% probability of hitting $150,000.
Odds step down throughout larger targets.
Polymarket reveals a forty five% likelihood for $120,000.
It assigns 35% odds to $130,000.
It provides $140,000 a 28% probability.
Merchants seem most assured in $100,000, which is priced at 80%.
4-year cycle questions linger
The report famous it’s unclear why merchants are cautious, however pointed to uncertainty round bitcoin’s conventional four-year cycle tied to halving occasions.
It additionally referenced that bitcoin closed 2025 within the pink.
Analysts keep bullish on 2026
Regardless of Polymarket’s pricing, analysts from Commonplace Chartered, Technique and Bernstein who’ve predicted bitcoin may attain $150,000 in 2026.
Fundstrat’s Tom Lee is extra optimistic, forecasting $200,000 to $250,000.
Macro and coverage catalysts cited
There are additionally expectations that President Donald Trump will title a brand new Federal Reserve chair in coming weeks, with markets anticipating interest-rate cuts.