Wintermute confronted scrutiny for 2 latest occasions: dumping Bitcoin onto Binance throughout New 12 months’s Eve’s skinny liquidity, then scrambling to build up cash in what seemed to be pressing shopping for forward of the Fed announcement on Jan. 2.
The claims paint an image of coordinated manipulation: promote into weak spot, purchase again cheaper. On-chain information helps the primary accusation, however not the second.
The proof comes from blockchain transaction information, not from alternate order books. Each move analyzed includes addresses labeled by Arkham as belonging to Wintermute on one aspect and Binance sizzling wallets on the opposite.
This technique captures custody transfers between the market maker and the alternate however reveals nothing about what occurs inside Binance’s matching engine. A Bitcoin deposit might set off fast market promote orders or sit idle as stock.
The blockchain information motion, not intent.
On-chain information confirms the Dec. 31 dump
On Dec. 31, 2025, Wintermute moved 1,518.6 BTC to Binance whereas withdrawing solely 305.5 BTC, a web deposit of 1,213 BTC, price roughly $107 million on the day’s costs close to $88,000.
The timing concentrated throughout historically low-liquidity home windows.
The most important transfers hit at 06:43 UTC (148.5 BTC) and 18:10 UTC (443 BTC), hours when Western markets sleep, and Asian buying and selling desks wind down. Bitcoin dropped from $92,000 on Dec. 30 to interrupt under $90,000 on Dec. 31, bottoming close to $91,500 that night.
Wintermute’s heaviest deposits bracket the intraday low.
The sample continued past New 12 months’s Eve. On Jan. 1, 2026, Wintermute pushed one other 1,559.2 BTC to Binance whereas pulling 935.1 BTC again, a web deposit of 624 BTC, roughly $55 million.
On Jan. 2, the move continued: 1,631.7 BTC deposited, 814.4 BTC withdrawn, for a web 817 BTC shifting onto the alternate. Over three consecutive days, Wintermute deposited 2,654 BTC to Binance and withdrew 2,055 BTC, leaving roughly 600 BTC on the alternate’s infrastructure.
This directional move helps the dumping accusation in uncooked magnitude and timing.
Wintermute moved substantial Bitcoin onto Binance exactly when liquidity thins and worth strain amplifies. Whether or not the agency executed fast gross sales or staged stock for gradual distribution stays unknowable from blockchain information alone.
But, the custody transfers themselves set up clear promoting strain throughout weak market situations.
Accumulation thesis debunked
The second accusation that Wintermute urgently amassed Bitcoin on Jan. 2 collapses below scrutiny of the identical on-chain information.
Throughout 14 transaction datasets spanning 05:15 to 17:55 UTC on Jan. 2, Wintermute acquired 2,091.8 BTC from exterior counterparties (together with WBTC on Ethereum) and despatched out 2,509.7 BTC.
The agency ended the day with 418 BTC, down from its begin. That represents web distribution, not accumulation.
The hourly breakdown reveals traditional two-sided market-making slightly than directional shopping for. Wintermute confirmed web inflows throughout early-morning classes and once more round 09:00 and 13:00-14:00 UTC, totaling roughly 590 BTC in optimistic move.
However these accumulation home windows received swamped by web outflows concentrated at 10:00, 15:00, and into 17:00 UTC, the place mixed distributions exceeded 1,000 BTC. The cumulative place traced a sawtooth sample, consisting of alternate shopping for and promoting, that ended properly under zero.
Pressing accumulation produces a steep upward ramp, and Wintermute’s Jan. 2 exercise produced the other.
Counterparty evaluation reinforces this interpretation. Wintermute pulled BTC from Gate, Crypto.com, Bullish, Bitfinex, KuCoin, and Bybit, exchanges that reported web inflows.
Nonetheless, Binance alone absorbed 933 BTC of web deposits from Wintermute that day, dwarfing the inflows from different venues.
When netted throughout all tagged alternate addresses within the datasets, Wintermute’s CEX flows landed nearly flat, with solely single-digit BTC web motion. The majority of the 418 BTC discount got here from outflows to unlabeled addresses not clearly recognized as exchanges or DeFi protocols.
The gross turnover of 4,600 BTC paperwork intense buying and selling exercise. But, turnover measures velocity, not route. A market maker rotating stock throughout venues to seize spreads generates an identical quantity signatures to a dealer accumulating a place.
The excellence lies in web flows. Wintermute’s Jan. 2 web flows level unambiguously towards distribution slightly than accumulation.
What on-chain information can and can’t show
Three constraints restrict the conclusions that may be drawn from blockchain information.
First, the datasets seize solely addresses labeled as Wintermute or particular exchanges, and exercise involving untagged wallets disappears from view.
Second, on-chain transfers timestamp custody adjustments, not trades. A BTC deposit on Dec. 31 might stay untraded for days or execute immediately. The blockchain can’t distinguish.
Third, the evaluation excludes exercise on different networks and artificial BTC merchandise. Hedges via CME futures, perpetual swaps on offshore exchanges, or BTC-collateralized debt positions wouldn’t seem in spot BTC or WBTC transaction logs.
Inside these constraints, the info establishes clear details. Wintermute deposited substantial Bitcoin to Binance throughout year-end low-liquidity durations, with continued web deposits via Jan. 2.
That directional move aligns with promoting strain throughout weak market situations.
The timing, scale, and persistence throughout three consecutive days assist the Dec. 31 dumping accusation, although orderbook information can be required to verify precise execution.
The Jan. 2 shopping for accusation finds no assist in the identical information. Wintermute ended that buying and selling session with 418 BTC lower than it began, demonstrating a web discount slightly than accumulation.
The agency turned over an enormous quantity however completed lighter on Bitcoin, not heavier, a habits in line with energetic market-making.
Transaction patterns present stock rotation throughout venues, not panic shopping for.
The hole between blockchain transparency and orderbook opacity creates area for competing narratives. On-chain information proves Wintermute moved massive Bitcoin positions onto exchanges throughout burdened market situations.
Whether or not that constitutes manipulation or market-making depends upon execution methods invisible to blockchain observers.
The Dec. 31 flows warrant scrutiny, whereas the Jan. 2 flows don’t assist the buildup narrative.