Constancy Labs managing associate Parth Gargava says bitcoin could also be transitioning away from its acquainted, halving-linked four-year rhythm and into one thing nearer to a “supercycle”, a regime that might hold costs elevated for longer and make drawdowns much less extreme, if structural demand continues to construct.
Talking in Constancy’s Jan. 9 crypto outlook for 2026 video, Gargava anchored the dialogue within the cycle framework many market members have used for years: peaks arriving roughly a 12 months and a half after every halving. “Historically, what we have now seen is Bitcoin has had this four-year cycle,” he mentioned, including that the sample has been “extremely correlated to Bitcoin’s halving occasions.” He pointed to the 2016 halving adopted by a peak in December 2017 close to $20,000, and the 2020 halving adopted by one other peak in 2021 about 18 months later.
That historical past issues as a result of it frames the talk round the latest halving in April 2024. Gargava acknowledged the easy inference some buyers make from prior cycles: “So perhaps we’re previous that peak value.” However he positioned that view as just one facet of the argument, highlighting a competing thesis that the market’s construction is evolving.
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“On the opposite facet, you’re additionally seeing quite a lot of arguments round how we would have entered right into a supercycle versus what we have now seen previously 4 years,” Gargava mentioned. “And what an excellent cycle actually means is you may need extra extended highs, longer highs, and shallower dips.”
Gargava credited Constancy Digital Property’ analysis group for outlining what he referred to as the “tremendous cycle mechanism,” and advised an analogy to the commodities market within the 2000s. The important thing level was not that bitcoin would mechanically copy commodities, however {that a} sustained, multi-year bid can alter how markets behave, extending expansions and compressing the depth of selloffs.
JUST IN: $5 trillion Constancy talks about how #Bitcoin may need entered a “supercycle”
Bullish 🚀 pic.twitter.com/IUv3GVHwEW
— Bitcoin Journal (@BitcoinMagazine) January 12, 2026
Three Forces That Might Push Bitcoin Into A Supercycle
He outlined three drivers he believes might underpin that form of regime shift.
First is “regular buy-in by establishments centered on ETFs,” which Gargava framed as persistent demand quite than episodic speculative bursts. In his telling, ETFs can operate as a channel that retains incremental capital flowing even when sentiment softens, doubtlessly altering the market’s typical post-peak unwind.
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Second is coverage. Gargava pointed to “pro-crypto insurance policies” within the US as a supportive backdrop, implying {that a} friendlier regulatory stance might scale back headline danger and encourage broader participation from buyers and intermediaries that beforehand stayed on the sidelines.
Third is market maturation and altering correlations. “We’re additionally seeing how the crypto market as a complete is maturing and deviating from the S&P 500 and treasured metals,” he mentioned. The implication is that bitcoin’s buying and selling conduct could also be changing into much less captive to conventional risk-asset strikes and the easy “digital gold” narrative, an evolution that might matter for positioning, hedging, and macro sensitivity.
Notably, Gargava didn’t declare the four-year cycle is definitively damaged. As a substitute, he offered a reside query for 2026: whether or not bitcoin continues to comply with a post-halving path that culminates in a well-recognized, sharp boom-and-bust sample, or whether or not structural forces: ETF-driven institutional demand, a extra supportive US coverage tone, and a maturing market profile help an extended, steadier enlargement with “shallower dips.”
At press time, Bitcoin traded at $92,182.
Featured picture created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com