Arthur Hayes says bitcoin might make new all-time highs in 2026, even after lagging gold and tech shares in 2025.
He wrote that bitcoin wants a shift in financial situations to regain momentum:
“If gold and the Nasdaq have the juice, how is Bitcoin going to get its groove again? Greenback liquidity should increase for that to occur.”
Liquidity is the core catalyst
Hayes pointed to a number of potential drivers of a “drastic improve” in greenback liquidity in 2026.
These included enlargement of the Federal Reserve stability sheet by means of “cash printing,” falling mortgage charges as liquidity loosens, and business banks changing into extra prepared to lend to US government-backed strategic industries.
Hayes ties navy spending to financial institution financing
Hayes additionally linked his liquidity view to US protection priorities:
“The US will proceed to flex its navy muscle, and to take action requires the manufacturing of weapons of mass destruction financed by the business banking system.”
2025 efficiency hole: tech and gold beat bitcoin
Hayes mentioned greenback liquidity declined in 2025 and bitcoin fell “accordingly,” whereas the Nasdaq held up as a result of synthetic intelligence had been “nationalized” by China and the US.
He added:
“The liquidity didn’t assist our bitcoin portfolios. However let’s not draw the flawed conclusions from Bitcoin’s 2025 underperformance. It was because it at all times is, a liquidity story.”
In 2025, know-how shares have been the top-performing S&P 500 sector, delivering a 24.6% whole return.
Bitcoin fell 14.40% in 2025, whereas gold rose 44.40%, based on Curvo knowledge.
Bitcoin was up 12.20% over the previous 30 days, per CoinMarketCap.
Hayes additionally described bitcoin as “financial know-how,” saying it’s worthwhile relative to fiat debasement, pointing to the long-term decline in buying energy proven in Bitbo’s greenback devaluation chart.