Macro dealer Mel Mattison laid out a 2026 outlook on TFTC that ties geopolitics, liquidity, and bitcoin’s latest worth motion right into a single thesis.
He argued the “rules-based order” is giving solution to a multipolar world targeted on nationwide curiosity and useful resource safety.
Mattison stated:
“The principles-based order was primarily a rip-off… that began to collapse. So, we’re not imposing it. So, it principally means nothing.”
Bitcoin as a liquidity commerce
Mattison stated bitcoin’s late-2025 weak point was extra about liquidity and market mechanics than a easy fairness correlation:
“Bitcoin is sort of a international liquidity correlated asset.”
He pointed to tax-loss harvesting by spot bitcoin ETFs, and the dearth of a wash-sale rule for spot bitcoin, as elements that amplified year-end promoting strain.
A $150,000 goal and timing danger
Mattison repeated a key worth goal for the primary half of 2026:
“I feel we’re going to 150,000 within the first half of the 12 months.”
He additionally warned that one of the best entries have a tendency to seem when uncertainty is highest, and that the “promote time” usually comes after pessimists capitulate.
Tariffs, the Fed, and volatility
Mattison flagged a possible Supreme Courtroom resolution that might curb tariff powers as a near-term catalyst for a pointy however temporary selloff.
He stated he expects liquidity to increase over the subsequent one to a few years, with the Federal Reserve and banking system absorbing extra Treasuries over time.
He added that vitality costs and AI-driven productiveness might assist offset inflation considerations as steadiness sheets develop.