Bitcoin’s aid rally has largely performed out over the previous two weeks, however Glassnode stated the transfer stalled as value pushed into key cost-basis resistance.
On-chain resistance round $98k
Glassnode stated bitcoin has been buying and selling in a spread, with draw back supported close to the True Market Imply at $81.1k and upside capped by the short-term holder (STH) value foundation.
The report famous that value superior towards the ~$98k area as vendor exhaustion appeared in early January 2026, however breakeven provide from latest patrons turned more and more energetic.
Glassnode wrote:
“The latest rejection close to the Brief-Time period Holder value foundation at ~$98.4k mirrors the market construction noticed in Q1 2022.”
Provide overhang and maturing sellers
Glassnode stated the rally partially crammed the $93k to $98k “air hole,” with redistribution forming new STH provide clusters.
Nonetheless, it flagged a “huge and dense” provide zone above $100k that continues to be unresolved and will cap makes an attempt above $98.4k and $100k.
Glassnode added:
“Till new demand emerges with ample energy to soak up this overhead provide, long-term holders stay a latent supply of resistance.”
It additionally pointed to realized losses dominated by the three–6 month cohort, in line with pain-driven exits by patrons who collected above $110k.
Spot improves, derivatives keep quiet
Off-chain, Glassnode stated spot CVD on Binance and mixture venues rotated again towards web shopping for, whereas Coinbase promoting slowed.
Company treasury flows have been described as sporadic and event-driven, somewhat than sustained.
In derivatives, Glassnode stated futures quantity stays compressed and choices repricing is generally front-end, with one-week implied volatility up greater than 13 factors since Sunday’s sell-off.
Glassnode concluded:
“The market is pricing short-lived threat, not an enduring disruption.”