The market has not seen issuers mint billions of {dollars} in stablecoins each day in current months. In January 2026, stablecoin development confirmed clear indicators of slowing. This sign raises questions on what the market could also be dealing with subsequent.
By evaluating stablecoin developments with Bitcoin value actions and comparable historic intervals, a number of potential eventualities emerge. These comparisons assist traders achieve a extra complete view of potential dangers forward.
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USDT Market Capitalization Stalls, Elevating Issues About Continued Correction
Information from the USDT Market Cap Change by CryptoQuant tracks each day adjustments out there capitalization of the main stablecoin.
The 60-day common (60-day market cap change – SMA30) reveals that the tempo of USDT market cap development has declined sharply since late November final 12 months. Progress fell from round $15 billion to roughly $3.3 billion.
In comparison facet by facet with Bitcoin’s value, a robust correlation turns into obvious. In earlier cycles, rising liquidity—mirrored by speedy will increase in USDT market cap—typically moved in parallel with Bitcoin rallies.
Conversely, when liquidity development slowed, Bitcoin sometimes entered a interval of stagnation. In worse eventualities, the market shifted right into a downtrend.
Though the 60-day market cap change – SMA30 has not but turned unfavourable, the most recent indicators from the 2026 market setting are sending warnings.
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First, the market capitalization of USDT (ERC-20)—which accounts for greater than 50% of the overall USDT provide—has declined over the previous month. On the identical time, USDT has traded constantly under $1 throughout this era.
This doesn’t point out a USDT depeg. Nonetheless, a declining market cap, mixed with sub-$1 pricing, displays capital outflows. Stablecoin holders seem much less all in favour of in search of new alternatives and extra inclined to money out.
Second, Tether Treasury just lately burned 3 billion USDT. This marked the primary burn since Could final 12 months. CryptoQuant information reveals this was additionally the most important USDT burn up to now three years.
Some observers interpret this transfer as an indication of warning from massive gamers amid macroeconomic uncertainty and rising geopolitical tensions. This course of sometimes happens when traders redeem USDT for USD, prompting Tether to take away the corresponding USDT from circulation.
“Somebody large simply utterly exited the market,” investor Ted commented.
These indicators stay early and should not but robust sufficient to verify a definitive pattern. Nonetheless, in the event that they intensify, the stablecoin market’s two-month stagnation at round $308 billion in whole capitalization may finish and shift right into a corrective part.
In that state of affairs, Bitcoin and altcoins might face an elevated danger of coming into a bear market—an end result most traders would favor to keep away from.