Bitcoin’s (BTC) month-to-month positive aspects have been restricted to simply 2.2%, however February may mark a bullish shift. Since 2016, the week ending Feb. 21 has recorded the best median return at 8.4%, with Bitcoin closing larger 60% of the time.
Key takeaways:
-
February has delivered a median 7% weekly BTC return traditionally, outperforming October’s seasonal energy.
-
Early-February efficiency has reliably flagged bearish durations, with 2018, 2022, and 2025 all setting the tone inside the first three weeks.
February’s seasonal edge and its impression on BTC
Community Economist Timothy Peterson highlighted that February has traditionally been one in every of Bitcoin’s most constant bullish months, usually surpassing the well-known “Uptober” impact in This autumn. In accordance with Peterson, the driving force is macroeconomic-related relatively than crypto-specific.
Mid-February marks the discharge of full-year company earnings and ahead steerage, which tends to be optimistic. This outlook sometimes nudges traders towards a risk-on posture, with some capital rotating into Bitcoin. Peterson mentioned,
“The 2-week interval for Feb 7-21 contains a median weekly return of => 7% per week!!”
Peterson additionally famous that the primary three weeks of February have been notably telling throughout correction years. Bitcoin gained 4% in early 2018, fell 3% in 2022, and declined 5% in 2025, all years that finally closed decrease.
With volatility elevated however easing, Peterson argued that Bitcoin may very well be well-positioned for a rebound if macroeconomic stress indicators, such because the CBOE’s volatility index (VIX), cool off.
Associated: Bitcoin provides ‘no haven’ from Trump’s Greenland goals
Bitcoin’s ceiling in 2026 stays above $200,000
Bitcoin researcher Sminston With stays bullish on BTC’s long-cycle potential. Utilizing the Bitcoin Decay Channel, With positioned Bitcoin’s 2026 high value between $210,000 and $300,000, noting that whereas the mannequin doesn’t predict timing, its value bands have traditionally been dependable.
That longer-term view is strengthened by momentum knowledge. Sina, creator of the Bitcoin Intelligence Report, mentioned Bitcoin’s momentum has turned constructive regardless of the latest sharp correction.
In accordance with Sina, consolidation since early January preserved the broader stream construction. The sell-off coincided with the Nasdaq’s decline following renewed US tariff tensions, signaling a news-driven transfer relatively than a Bitcoin-specific breakdown.
Supporting this view, XWIN Analysis famous that Bitcoin stays in a consolidation part relatively than a transparent risk-off pattern. Whereas elevated long-term bond yields are limiting valuation growth, the Realized Cap continues to rise, an indication that spot-based capital remains to be getting into the community.
Associated: Bitcoin-to-gold ratio falls to new low, however analysts say BTC’s discounted ‘setups are uncommon’
This text doesn’t include funding recommendation or suggestions. Each funding and buying and selling transfer entails threat, and readers ought to conduct their very own analysis when making a choice. Whereas we try to offer correct and well timed info, Cointelegraph doesn’t assure the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any info on this article. This text might include forward-looking statements which can be topic to dangers and uncertainties. Cointelegraph is not going to be answerable for any loss or injury arising out of your reliance on this info.