On January 30, Ripple’s CTO Emeritus, David Schwartz, instantly addressed rampant neighborhood hypothesis about XRP’s value potential.
He utilized a elementary monetary logic to argue that the token’s present market worth contradicts the wildly optimistic predictions shared on-line.
His feedback spotlight a persistent divide between aspirational neighborhood narratives and the sober chances mirrored in buying and selling exercise.
A Lesson in Anticipated Worth
The dialogue started with a person pleading for Schwartz to inform supporters that XRP wouldn’t attain $50 or $100. Schwartz declined to make an absolute prediction, recalling he as soon as thought XRP hitting $0.25 was unlikely. Nevertheless, he provided a transparent framework for evaluating such claims.
He stated that if a significant share of rational traders really believed XRP had a ten% probability of hitting $100 within the close to future, promoting at present ranges would make little sense.
“If many rational folks believed that there was a ten% probability that XRP hit $100 inside just a few years, they undoubtedly wouldn’t promote very a lot at present at a lot lower than $10,” Schwartz wrote on X.
In keeping with him, these traders would purchase aggressively, shortly exhausting provide at decrease costs. However the truth that XRP continues to commerce far beneath that stage suggests that only a few market members maintain that perception with sufficient confidence to commit capital.
Schwartz added that anybody claiming in any other case “is just not telling the reality,” framing the problem as a niche between on-line claims and precise habits. He inspired readers to use the identical math themselves throughout completely different chances and time frames.
This angle was echoed by different neighborhood figures, together with XrpArthur, a proponent of the Ripple token. They wrote that folks satisfied of a $100 XRP “clearly don’t manage to pay for (or actual conviction) to build up closely,” warning that exaggerated targets have broken neighborhood psychology.
Market Actuality Versus Lengthy-Time period Narratives
Presently, XRP is buying and selling close to $1.75, reflecting a drop of over 8% up to now week and about 44% during the last 12 months. This locations it in what some analysts name one in every of its longest consolidation phases, lasting roughly 434 days.
The technical panorama stays difficult, with XRP buying and selling about 25% beneath its 200-day transferring common, and short-term momentum indicators suggesting continued consolidation. Nevertheless, this value motion exists alongside some constructive developments, together with U.S. spot XRP ETFs, which noticed almost $92 million in internet inflows in January, in keeping with SoSoValue information.
On the similar time, Santiment reported that 42 new wallets holding not less than a million XRP have appeared because the begin of 2026, suggesting quiet accumulation by giant holders regardless of weak short-term developments.
In the meantime, corporations like 21Shares have revealed measured 2026 outlooks, with a base-case value goal close to $2.45, contingent on components like sustained ETF inflows and adoption of Ripple’s stablecoin. This evaluation, mixed with Schwartz’s anticipated worth argument, presents a extra grounded counterpoint to the intense value forecasts that regularly flow into inside elements of the XRP neighborhood.
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